Events:
The company issued a half-year performance forecast for 2023. It is estimated that the net profit of 2023H1 will be 310-4 million yuan, turning losses into profits, an increase of 108.42%, 110.86%, and a loss of 1200-13 million yuan, and a decrease of 81.16%, 82.61% over the same period last year.
Comments:
23Q2 turned its net profit from loss to profit. 2023Q2 is expected to achieve revenue of about 1 billion yuan, an increase of about 3% over the same period last year, and an increase of about 29% compared with the same period last year; the net profit of returning to the mother is about 2822-29.12 million yuan, which turns losses into profits over the same period last year, with an increase of about 249% over the same period last year, an increase of about 212% compared with the previous year; and the net profit after deducting non-return is about 2152 to 22.52 million yuan, which is a year-on-year increase of about 193% 198% and 162% compared with the same period last year. 2023H1 consumer electronics business declined, mainly due to weak demand in the mobile phone industry, but the share of notebook business continued to increase, achieving growth; new energy related businesses increased significantly, among which, designated projects for new energy vehicles were gradually mass produced, orders increased significantly compared with the same period last year, photovoltaic inverter and energy storage business developed rapidly; revenue in the communications sector decreased slightly, but profitability increased year-on-year.
AIDC investment growth, the company's heat dissipation products contribute to performance growth. The outbreak of the application of AI large model increases the demand for computing power and increases the investment in AIDC. With the expansion of the scale and power of the data center, the demand for heat dissipation capacity is further improved. According to the heat dissipation requirements of the server, the company develops axial flow fans, special radiators, single-phase liquid-cooled plate modules, two-phase liquid-cooled modules and other products. Customers in the company's server field include Huawei, ZTE, Datang Mobile, Tide, China Digital, etc., and related products have been delivered in bulk, and the follow-up is expected to become a new growth point.
In the second half of the year, new mobile phone products were released intensively, driving the performance to achieve growth. In the field of consumer electronics, a number of heat dissipation and conductive products are used in smartphones and smart wear, and the end customers include Huawei, Samsung, Glory, XIAOMI and so on. In the second half of the year, the mobile phone market ushered in the peak season, and Huawei Mate 60 and other new phones were released intensively. With reliable product quality, the company has been recognized by Huawei and other well-known brands, and is expected to benefit deeply from the recovery of sales in the downstream mobile phone market.
Profit forecast and rating: the company is actively exploring new business opportunities. With the development and growth of network communications, servers, consumer electronics and other businesses, business performance is expected to achieve rapid growth. It is estimated that the revenue from 2023 to 2025 will be 53.80 million yuan, respectively, and the corresponding net profit will be 2.02 million yuan, 439 million yuan, and 567 million yuan, respectively, and the corresponding PE will be times that of 49-22-17, and it will be rated as "overweight".
Risk hint: downstream demand is lower than expected, profit forecast and valuation judgment are lower than expected.