This report is read as follows:
The company has ploughed LPG deep processing field for many years, extending the layout of maleic anhydride-BDO and other industries. The project of comprehensive utilization of light hydrocarbons is carried out in an orderly manner, and the company's performance is expected to maintain rapid growth.
Main points of investment:
Maintain the "overweight" rating. Maintain the EPS of the company for 23-25 years as 1.83, 2.06, 2.29 yuan. Refer to the comparable company, give the company 14 times PE for 23 years, and maintain the target price to 25.13 yuan.
The performance is in line with expectations. The company's 23H1 realized operating income of 2.956 billion yuan,-0.52% of the same period last year, and net profit of 217 million yuan, + 3.54% of the same period last year. Among them, 23Q2 operating income 1.477 billion yuan, month-on-month change-0.13%; return to the mother net profit of 110 million yuan, month-on-month change + 2.8%. The net profit after deduction is 109 million yuan, with a month-on-month ratio of + 5.10%. 23H1 company internal cost reduction and efficiency, PBAT and other new devices put into production, sec-butyl acetate re-production, further enrich the product structure and bring new benefit growth points for the company.
China 6B will be available, the price of oil additives may be supported. According to the announcements of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National 6B standard has been fully implemented since July 23, banning the production, import and sale of cars that do not meet the standards. China 6B standard oil limits the content of olefins and aromatics in gasoline components, resulting in the decrease of gasoline octane number. Because of their high octane number and environmental protection, isooctane and MTBE have become important oil additives to stabilize gasoline octane number, which has a broad market space and may be supported by price.
Planned projects will be completed and put into production one after another, and the company will start a new round of growth. The company plans a comprehensive project of light hydrocarbons, which will take maleic anhydride and BDO as the center and comprehensively distribute downstream high value-added products. Following the production of 150000 tons of maleic anhydride plant, 60,000 tons of PBAT project has been put into production, sec-butyl acetate plant has been successfully resumed production, 100,000 tons of butanone co-production of 130000 tons of ethyl acetate has entered the stage of production and commissioning. Projects such as maleic anhydride catalyst, BDO and annual output of 120000 tons of 1mine4-butanediol are in progress in an orderly manner. The company is located in Daya Bay Refining and Chemical District, low-cost LPG resources to further reduce costs. In the long run, the company will benefit from the production park, the integrated layout of the industrial chain and the excellent cost reduction ability of the company, and the company's growth will have certainty.
Risk hint: the project under construction is less than expected and the risk of fluctuation of product volume and price