Source: Securities Times
Author: Wu Zhi

"the film market this summer is so beautiful." This past weekend, the summer box office continued to grow by leaps and bounds, as some filmmakers sighed.

With more than 20 days left in the 2023 summer season, the cumulative box office has reached 14.7 billion yuan-close to the 15 billion yuan predicted by many people in the industry in the first half of the year.

Recently, a number of industry institutions and brokerages have raised their forecasts for the summer and annual box office, and some brokerage research reports predict that the highest box office for the whole year is expected to exceed 60 billion yuan.

Today, Hong Kong film and television stocks rose against the market. so far, Lemeng Film and Television is up more than 10%, BABA Film is up more than 5%, and Cat's Eye Entertainment is up more than 2%. The Hong Kong stock film concept index has soared along with the summer box office, up more than 20% since July.

The single-day box office exceeded 500 million yuan in a row.

At 10:10 on August 7th, less than 1/3 yuan in August 2023, the cumulative box office has reached 1.9 billion yuan, thanks in large part to the "extraordinary performance" this past weekend.

The single-day box office rose to 503 million yuan on Saturday, Aug. 5, 187days after the Spring Festival this year, the single-day box office exceeded 500 million yuan again, setting a record for nearly three years.

On Sunday, Aug. 6, the single-day box office was pushed up again to 520 million yuan, the previous day's record was easily broken.

What set off a new wave of cinema is the new film "put all your eggs in one basket". The film is directed by the Olympic bid, starring Zhang Yixing, Jin Chen and Wang Chuanjun. It is a book based on tens of thousands of real fraud cases, which tells the whole story of overseas network fraud.Industry chainDonovan's film.

"put all your eggs in one basket" was originally scheduled for release on August 11, but August 5 and 6 are just the release phase. However, due to the high number of screenings in the screening stage, the film grossed nearly 400 million yuan in two days, breaking a number of box office records.

Due to the novel theme, the theme "one more person to watch the movie, one less person to be deceived"put all your eggs in one basket" won wide audience attention. A reporter from Securities Times e Company noticed that the attendance rate of the film in the past two days was 51.7% and 46.6% respectively, far higher than other films released in the same period. On the evening of August 6, the temporary booking of tickets at a cinema in a district of Shanghai where the reporter was located was almost to the point where it was difficult to get a ticket.

The market is so hot that on the morning of August 7, the "desperate" film announced that the film would be released on August 8. According to the Lighthouse Professional Edition, the film, which is still in the release stage today, grossed nearly 50% at the box office with 24.3% of screenings. A number of industry insiders have said that the film could become the biggest dark horse this summer.

According to the data, the producers of "desperate" include Bad Monkey (Shanghai) Culture Communication Co., Ltd., Taobaopiao, Chinese Film, Beijing Shangshi Culture Communication Co., Ltd., Yuye (Shanghai) Culture Media Co., Ltd., and so on.

Among them, the main shareholders behind the bad monkey culture and Shangshi culture are well-known director and screenwriter Ning Hao, while Yuano Culture is 55% owned by the film's director's bid for the Olympic Games.

In addition to "put all your eggs in one basket", "Giant Tooth Shark 2", which was released on Aug. 4, has also grossed nearly 400m yuan at the box office, and the industry estimates that the film will take more than 1.6 billion yuan at the box office. The co-production is expected to make a breakthrough amid a slump in the box office of imported films this year.

At present, there are still more than 20 days left in the summer vacation. During the summer vacation when dark horses frequently appeared, many films such as "the lost her", "octagonal Cage" and "Changan 30,000 miles" achieved breakthroughs. The performance of films such as "warm" and "Super Family", which were initially highly expected, fell short of expectations.

Is the box office expected to exceed 60 billion yuan for the whole year?

The continued better-than-expected performance of the summer season made the box office forecasts of major institutions at the beginning of the year seem rather "conservative". Recently, the latest reports released by a number of professional institutions and brokerage research reports have raised their forecasts for the summer and full-year box office.

For example, Jiang Yifan, chief market analyst at Guotai Junan Research Institute, said that the film box office market has been very hot recently. The single-day box office exceeded 510 million yuan on Aug. 6, the highest since the Spring Festival. As of Aug. 5, the total box office exceeded 14 billion yuan, much higher than expected. "the box office is estimated to reach 18 billion yuan to 20 billion yuan throughout the summer, which is not impossible to exceed the 2019 level."

In a recent report, Topp data said that combined with historical data, it is clear that the monthly box office from February to July this year has risen month by month compared with that before the 2019 epidemic; the year-on-year decline narrowed from-65.4% in February to-1.3% in June, and the box office increased by 51.5% in July, which is expected to continue in August and beyond.

At the beginning of this year, Top data predicted that the box office in 2023 is expected to recover to 80% in 2019, and the annual box office is expected to reach 50 billion yuan to 55 billion yuan.

For the summer, Top data CEO Cheng Fei said in an interview with the Securities Times e company that the summer season spans three months and has sufficient time to walk the trend of long tail, so the attitude towards this year's summer vacation is optimistic, and the box office is expected to be around 14 billion yuan to 15 billion yuan.

In the context of the recent movie boom, this expectation is expected to rise further. According to the report, through big data's algorithm and user research data, combined with the dimensions of the waiting list and the box office volume distribution of the film, the major schedule and monthly box office trend in the second half of the year are predicted, and it is predicted that the final box office in 2023 is expected to hit 57 billion yuan.

"2023 is the first year for China's film market to stabilize and recover, and in just a few months, the market returned to its peak in 2019. Entering the second half of the year, no matter from the reserve of the market order or the audience's willingness to watch the movie, it has released a positive signal. We are confident that in the near future, the Chinese film market will hit 60 billion yuan again, challenging the largest voting position in the world. Top data indicate.

Guohai Securities also pointed out in the latest research report that the performance in the first half of 2023 was strong, popular styles were frequent, and high-quality content continued in the second half. It is predicted that the 2023 summer box office will be 17.68 billion yuan (conservative), 18.5 billion yuan (neutral) and 19.21 billion yuan (optimistic).

The newspaper also raised its box office forecast for the whole year. The box office forecast for the whole year at the beginning of the year is 44.87 billion yuan (conservative), 49.46 billion yuan (neutral) and 54.06 billion yuan (optimistic). The latest box office forecasts for the whole year are 57.14 billion yuan (conservative), 58.94 billion yuan (neutral) and 60.76 billion yuan (optimistic).