According to the company's semi-annual report for 2023, 23H1 achieved an operating income of 9.325 billion yuan, a year-on-year-42.93%, a net profit of 4.426 billion, a year-on-year net profit of 4.468 billion yuan, a net profit of 1.515 billion yuan, a year-on-year net profit of-70.94% and a month-on-month ratio of-47.95%.
The production of polysilicon has increased, the sales volume has been basically stable, and the production capacity has been released rapidly. 23H1's polysilicon output reached 79200 tons, + 18.66% compared with the same period last year, accounting for about 12% of domestic polysilicon production, with a solid position in the industry; 23H1's polysilicon sales volume was 76800 tons, + 0.59% compared with the same period last year, which remained basically stable. In terms of production capacity, the company has formed an annual polysilicon production capacity of 205000 tons, and the company will have a production capacity of 305000 tons after Inner Mongolia Phase II is put into production at the end of the 23rd. The company expects 23Q3 to produce 5.5-57000 tons of polysilicon and 19.3-198000 tons in 23 years.
The price of polysilicon is falling rapidly, and the price risk has been released. 2023H1, industry cyclical inventory consumption superimposed new capacity release, domestic polysilicon sales prices fall rapidly. The average unit price of the company's 2023H1 polysilicon (excluding tax) is 120.52 yuan / kg,-43.44% compared with the same period last year, which is the biggest reason for the decline in the company's performance compared with the same period last year. The average sales price of Q2 company is 86.35 yuan / kg, while the price of silicon has begun to stabilize and pick up, rising 15% and 20% from the lowest price in June. However, due to the continuous release of polysilicon production capacity, the price increase of P-type silicon is expected to be limited, and it is expected to fluctuate in the space of 60-90 yuan / kg for a long time in the future, while N-type silicon is expected to widen the price difference between P-type silicon and P-type silicon, which will become the growth point of enterprise profits. According to the data of Silicon Industry Branch, as of August 2, the average price of N-type material has reached 80.4 yuan / kg, which is obviously different from that of single crystal densifier by about 10.2 yuan / kg,N/P.
The company's costs continue to fall. The complete cost of company Q2 has been reduced to 51.35 yuan / kg. As the new production capacity in Inner Mongolia continues to reduce the average cost, the company's complete cost is expected to enter within 50 yuan / kg in the future.
Investment suggestion: we expect the company's 23-25 net return to be RMB 38.331 billion, respectively, compared with the same period last year. The year-on-year net profit is-67.9%, 37.6%, 42.2%, and the corresponding EPS is 2.87max, 1.79max, 2.55 yuan. Maintain the "overweight" rating.
Risk hint: industry competition aggravates the risk, and the company's cost falls faster than expected risk.