Backed by Shanghai Real Estate Group, diversified development strives to be a "century-old store": the company was listed in 1993 and has accumulated rich experience in development and urban construction after more than 60 years of development. it has become a platform for market-oriented real estate development under Shanghai Real Estate Group, realizing the development of commercial real estate, real estate financial business, equity investment, property management and so on.
The epidemic affects the carry-over rhythm, and the performance is expected to return to growth: in 2022, the company achieved operating income of 2.6 billion yuan,-72.9% of the same period last year, and net profit of 20 million yuan,-97.1% of the same period last year. Under the influence of the closure and control of the epidemic in Shanghai, the company failed to deliver a number of projects, affecting the short-term settlement pace, resulting in a significant decline in the scale of carry-over income.
By the end of Q1 in 2023, the total amount of accounts received and contractual liabilities of the company is 11.16 billion yuan, which is 4.3 times of the operating income in 2022, which can fully guarantee the continuous release of future performance. We expect that the company's operating income will return to growth after the project transfer returns to normal.
The operation quality continues to improve, and the financial security is high: in 2022, the company's sales expense rate is 1.02%, down 2.48 pct from the same period last year; the management expense rate is 2.94%, down 6.78 pct from the same period last year; and the financial expense rate is 3.79%, which is lower than that of the same period last year (2.99pct). Thanks to the company's excellent ability to control and control expenses during the period, all expense rates have decreased significantly. On the whole, the expense rate decreased significantly during the period, the overall cost control was good, and the management quality continued to improve.
At the end of 2022, the asset-liability ratio excluding prepaid accounts was 65.56%, down 0.77pct from the end of last year, net debt ratio was 36.76%, and 4.71pct was lower than the same period last year. Compared with the annual data of 2021, the leverage ratio of Chinese enterprises is significantly lower than the average level of comparable housing enterprises. At the same time, the company's cash-to-short-debt ratio increased from 7.2 at the end of 2021 to 9.9 at the end of 2022, but the short-term debt repayment pressure is small. Financial security is controllable.
Sales rebounded sharply, soil storage resources are of high quality: in 2022, the company achieved sales of 12.22 billion yuan, an increase of 160.5% over the same period last year; the sales area was 148000 square meters, an increase of 36.3% over the same period last year. After three consecutive years of decline, the company's sales increased greatly compared with the same period last year, and the sales scale exceeded 10 billion yuan. The company focuses on ploughing the greater Shanghai area, in the case of weak national sales, the company's future sales pressure is relatively small, at the same time, the company is mainly concentrated in the Shanghai area, the overall land reserve is of high quality.
Profit forecast: Chinese enterprises have rapid growth in sales, rich low-cost, high-quality land reserves, good financial position and obvious financing advantages. at the same time, relying on the Shanghai Real Estate Group to promote urban transformation strategy, it is expected to fully benefit in the future. At present, the company's PB is lower than the industry average, and considering that most of the company's land reserves are located in the core area of Shanghai, we think the current valuation is still relatively undervalued. We estimate that the company's 23-25 net return profit will be 15.5 Universe 1.93 billion RMB 2.42 billion, corresponding to a PE of 15.8 Universe 12.7 Plus 10.1 times, giving the company an "overweight" rating.
Risk tips: sales are not as expected, profit margins decline, the real estate industry accelerated decline, research and use of information is not timely.