Opinion | Policy expectations continue to heat up, driving the Hong Kong stock real estate chain to rebound

戴清策略研究 · Aug 7, 2023 09:44

来源：戴清策略研究
作者：戴清，王一凡

摘要

地产景气度有所回落，但政策预期不断升温，带动港股地产链反弹。2023年上半年地产销售修复趋势放缓，新开工面积、施工面积、开发投资等指标保持负增长。商品房销售较二季度末有所回落，整体弱于季节性，二手房成交面积同样连续走弱。近期房地产政策确定新基调，中央政治局会议中关于房地产的表述提到要“适应我国房地产市场供求关系发生重大变化的新形势，适时调整优化房地产政策”。随后北上广深等一线城市纷纷响应。政策预期升温，港股地产链或将迎来反弹投资机会。
地产政策催化下，港股是否有更好的投资机会？第一，所处位置上，港股地产链相较A股估值更便宜，投资机会更大。指数层面来看，1）上游行业AH股重合度很高，板块指数走势极度相关，港股估值整体低于A股。2）中游行业港股地产、物业估值明显低于A股，其中房地产板块AH溢价率较大。3）下游行业港股家电、轻工制造板块估值整体低于A股。板块龙头股层面来看，无论是AH两地均上市的企业还是A股港股可比龙头企业，港股较A股明显更便宜，性价比更高。
第二，股价弹性上，根据历史经验，在每一轮地产政策催化下，港股地产链涨幅更大。回顾历史地产上涨周期，A股地产公司的估值催化因素主要是行业政策环境，每次地产行业出现政策放松并落地的阶段，上涨幅度最大，确定性较高。港股地产公司的估值对于政策放松也有一定的反应，但主要的上涨还是集中在盈利端兑现的阶段，成交规模的提高是催化中国香港地产公司上涨的最直接的因素。2010年以前的两次上涨周期，A股涨幅、估值提升大于港股，节奏基本相同。2010年后，港股涨幅、估值提升大于A股。A股政策放松期上涨，港股盈利兑现期上涨。
第三，行情节奏上，A股港股有所不同，港股上涨更多集中在中后期的业绩兑现期，且显现出更大的弹性。通过复盘国泰君安发现，近10年来当地产鼓励政策推出后，A股由预期推动上涨，港股节奏滞后，往往等到销售、利润等指标兑现后开始上涨，且价格弹性优于A股。在7月政治局会议对地产积极定调后，北上广深等一线城市陆续表示“促进房地产市场平稳健康发展”，预计“认房不认贷”、下调存量房贷利率等政策将陆续落地，后续观测政策落地带来的业绩弹性，港股地产链或将迎来投资机会。
风险因素：1）国内经济复苏进度不及预期；2）政策不及预期。

前言

中央政治局会议关于房地产积极定调，北上广深等一线城市纷纷响应，市场对于地产政策放宽的预期升温，港股地产链或将迎来投资机会。本报告对比目前港股和A股相关产业链的估值，港股更便宜；深度复盘历史上政策催化后的两地市场表现，港股地产链行情启动较慢，但涨幅相对更大。

正文

1.地产景气度较二季度有所回落

从房地产投资需求看，近期商品房销售较二季度末有所回落，整体弱于季节性，二手房成交面积同样连续走弱。商品房销售方面，截至2023年7月30日，一线城市商品房销售面积较二季度末高点回落42%，二、三线城市商品房销售面积较一季度高点分别回落49%和35%，且整体弱于季节性。二手房方面，二手房挂牌量指数自2023年3月以来持续走弱，且明显低于历史同期水平。重点城市二手房周度成交面积，北京、杭州较二季度末高点下滑幅度较大，分别为-56%、59%。北京、深圳、杭州均低于历史同期水平，成都二手房成交则相对表现较好。

2.港股地产链行业及个股估值明显低于A股

“互联互通”后沪深港三地市场一体化，自2016年签署《联合公告》后，港股通股票范围先后于2020年11月27日和2023年3月3日进行了两次扩容，港股A股关联性日益加大。AH市场上的上市公司业务高度相关，景气周期趋同，我们通过对地产链上、中、下游的行业比较，以及对比同时在AH市场上市的公司和行业龙头，探讨AH两地之间的估值情况，给投资者提供新的视角。

2.1. 行业估值

由于内地和海外市场的交易风格不同，在同样的周期变化趋势下，在不同的区域上市的同类型的公司估值表现也会一定的差异。行业整体背景趋势相同的情况下， A股市场注重预期变化，因此方向变化时股价表现最明显，而港股更注重业绩的改变，在盈利端特别是公司销售兑现时，股价表现最为明显。

地产链行业A股估值明显高于港股，同时两者估值中枢均不断下降。由于投资者结构、流动性和投资逻辑等因素的不同，港股地产链行业估值明显低于A股，并保持相对稳定的趋势。随着中国社会与经济的发展进入成熟期，城市化进程放缓，房地产行业从成长期逐步进入稳定期，与之相匹配的行业内公司市值规模在不断提升，但是估值中枢不断下降，反映出行业发展的变化。

1）上游行业：煤炭、钢铁、有色

上游行业AH股重合度很高，板块指数走势极度相关，港股估值整体低于A股。

1）2017年以来A股、港股煤炭板块指数分别上涨75%和165%，对应的板块PE估值A股由2017年的17.4倍下降63%至6.5倍，港股PE由2017年的9.2倍下降48%至4.7倍，AH溢价率为37%。

2）钢铁属于强周期行业，2017年4月以来A股、港股钢铁板块指数分别为上涨5%和下跌31%，对应的板块PE估值A股由2017年的27.5倍下降9%至25.0倍，港股PE由27.3倍上升70%至46.5倍，估值高于A股。

3）有色板块由于其细分金属品种繁多，包括黄金、铜、铝和稀有金属，而AH两地上市公司的营收和净利润来源结构差异较大，因此AH板块指数走势相关系较弱，且估值差异最大。2017年4月以来A股、港股有色板块指数分别上涨38%和52%，对应的板块PE估值A股由2017年的58.5倍下降74%至15.3倍，港股PE由2017年的29.9倍下降70%至9.0倍，AH溢价率为70%。

2）中游行业：地产、物业

港股地产、物业估值明显低于A股，其中房地产板块AH溢价率较大。

1）自2016年中央经济工作会议首次提出“房住不炒”后，A股和港股地产指数均呈现震荡下行趋势。2017年4月以来A股、港股房地产板块指数分别下跌26%和24%，对应的板块PE估值A股由2017年的17.3倍下降28%至12.5倍，港股PE由2017年的9.9倍下降41%至5.9倍，AH溢价率极大，为113%。

2）A股、港股物业管理板块指数自2020年以来各下跌2%和51%，对应的板块PE估值A股由2021年的29.6倍下降14%至25.3倍，港股PE由25.7倍下降15%至21.9倍，AH溢价率为15%。

3）下游行业：家电、轻工

港股家电、轻工制造板块估值整体低于A股。

1）家电为地产链条下游，地产竣工相对直接影响到地产端的家电需求，但从指数观察我们发现地产限制政策并未对家电行业造成很大的冲击。2017年4月以来A股、港股家电板块指数分别上涨43%和156%，对应的板块PE估值A股由2017年的21.6倍下降25%至16.2倍，港股PE由2017年的17.8倍下降23%至13.7倍，AH溢价率为18%。

2）A股、港股轻工板块指数自2017年以来各下跌12%和55%，对应的板块PE估值A股由2017年的37.5倍下降7%至34.8倍，港股PE由15.2倍提升63%至24.8倍，AH溢价率为40%。

2.2. 个股估值

1）上游行业：煤炭、有色、钢铁。

上游资源品港股上市公司估值整体低于A股。

1）煤炭行业的龙头上市公司基本于AH两地上市：中国神华、兖矿能源和中煤能源，以及未在港股上市的行业龙头陕西煤业。A股龙头公司平均PE为5.6倍，高于港股平均PE3.7倍。

2）有色行业AH两地同时上市的公司较多：紫金矿业、天齐锂业、赣锋锂业、中国铝业、洛阳钼业和山东黄金，未在港股上市的龙头包括华友钴业、北方稀土和云铝股份。A股龙头公司平均PE为23.5倍，略高于港股平均PE19.6倍。

3）钢铁行业港股上市的重点公司有鞍钢股份、天工国际和中国东方集团，A股龙头包括宝钢股份、包钢股份、华菱钢铁。A股龙头公司平均PE为-27.7倍，低于港股平均PE1.4倍。

2）中游行业：地产、物业。

中游地产、物业港股上市公司估值略低于A股。

1）房地产行业港股龙头有新鸿基地产、华润置地、长实集团和中国海外发展，A股包括保利发展、万科A、招商蛇口和金地集团。A股龙头公司平均PE为12.5倍，略高于港股平均PE9.6倍。

2）物业行业港股龙头有华润万象生活、中海物业、碧桂园服务和绿城服务，A股包括招商积余、特发服务和皇庭国际。A股龙头公司平均PE为32.6倍，略高于港股平均PE23.4倍。

3）下游行业：家电、轻工。

下游家电、轻工行业港股龙头公司估值明显低于A股。

1）家电行业AH两地上市公司有海尔智家、海信家电，A股龙头包括美的集团、格力电器和三花智控。A股龙头公司平均PE为18.8倍，略高于港股平均PE16.0倍。

2）轻工制造行业港股龙头有思摩尔国际、敏华控股，A股龙头包括欧派家居、顾家家居和太阳纸业。A股龙头公司平均PE为-4.6倍，略低于港股平均PE-0.2倍。

3. 地产链AH股弹性历史复盘

为了对比AH地产股在行情到来时的价格弹性，我们复盘了历史上房地产指数大幅上涨的几个阶段，分别为2005年7月至2007年10月，2008年11月至2009年7月，2011年10月至2013年1月，2014年3月至2018年2月。回顾过去的几轮周期，A股地产公司的估值催化因素主要是行业政策环境，每次地产行业出现政策放松并落地的阶段，上涨幅度最大，确定性较高。港股地产公司的估值对于政策放松也有一定的反应，但主要的上涨还是集中在盈利兑现的阶段，成交规模的提高是催化中国香港地产公司上涨的最直接的因素。

分阶段来看，05-07年，当时城镇化进程快速推进，住房刚需和投资炒房的热度持续推升房地产价格飞速上涨，2005年3月，国务院出台《关于切实稳定住房价格的通知》，即“国八条”，共提出了八条意见稳定房价。《通知》虽令房价“刹车”，但供需关系从根本上决定了房价上涨难以抑制。期间A股房地产指数飙升837%，港股房地产指数上涨220%。A股龙头公司区间平均最大涨幅为1605%，港股龙头公司区间平均最大涨幅为591%。A股龙头公司估值由8.5倍上升至98.1倍，港股龙头公司估值由15.9倍上升至42.3倍。

08-09年，较好的市场环境加上地产行业盈利端的配合，期间A股房地产指数上涨217%，港股房地产指数上涨160%。A股主流地产公司平均最大涨幅达250%，港股地产上市公司平均最大涨幅达184%。A股地产龙头公司平均PE水平由12.6倍提升233%至42倍，而港股地产上市企业的估值水平由10.8倍提升225%至35.1倍。2011年底，信贷政策开始逐步宽松，12年上半年连续降准降息，盈利端表现逐步好转。在行业政策和盈利转向过程中A股和港股地产公司的估值表现出现了一定的差异。A股公司股价在11年底刺激政策出现便开始有所反应，行业指数涨幅为38%。港股地产公司在政策预期转向后没有立刻出现明显的上涨，而是在12年下半年成交量兑现后才有起色，指数涨幅为76%，弹性大于A股。A股龙头公司期间平均最大涨幅为81%，港股最大涨幅为139%。估值方面，A股龙头平均估值变化不大，由10.3倍升至10.9倍，而港股估值则由6倍大幅提升89%至11.3倍。

14-18年AH两地地产板块上涨节奏和估值同样体现出较大差异。14年6月两地地产公司分别达到了历史上最低的估值水平，A股地产企业为8.7倍，而港股为4.4倍。从14年7月开始各地限购政策陆续放松，之后直到15年3季度将近4个季度的时间内，地产行业从政策到资金，持续释放利好。从A股地产公司的表现来看，从14年7月到15年6月，叠加牛市影响，估值从最低位连续上涨了近3个季度，涨幅达到了241%，但此阶段港股并未表现出同样的热情，仅上涨34%。港股主流地产公司的估值提升主要发生在销售面积同比大幅增长的阶段，其中在15年3月销售面积同比增速转正，估值水平提升41%；15年4季度同样是在销售大幅增长的阶段，估值水平提升达到73%；16年全年港股估值水平维持在高位，在16年四季度至17年，调控政策出台后，销售表现超预期，地产行业指数上涨59%，而此阶段A股地产行业指数仅上涨13%。估值方面，2016四季度至2018年2月，港股龙头公司平均估值由8.7倍大幅上涨45%至12.6倍，而A股龙头平均估值却由12.9倍下滑9%至11.5倍，两地地产公司股价上涨节奏和估值产生了明显的差异。

4.政策预期升温，港股地产链投资值得关注

面对房地产市场下行的压力，近期房地产政策出现明显的积极变化。2023年上半年地产销售修复趋势放缓，新开工面积、施工面积、开发投资等指标保持负增长。近期房地产政策确定新基调，中央政治局会议中关于房地产的表述提到要“适应我国房地产市场供求关系发生重大变化的新形势，适时调整优化房地产政策”，相较以往的政治局会议最大变化在于未提及“房住不炒”，并且首次出现对房地产供求关系的判断，为后续制定房地产政策定调。

此外，7月28日住建部长倪虹在召开企业座谈会中进一步明确了支持房地产政策的具体方向，主要包括“要继续巩固房地产市场企稳回升态势，大力支持刚性和改善性住房需求，进一步落实好降低购买首套住房首付比例和贷款利率、改善性住房换购税费减免、个人住房贷款‘认房不用认贷’等政策措施”。

在政策积极定调后，一线城市纷纷响应。

1）北京市住建委表示，坚持稳中求进工作总基调，结合北京房地产市场实际情况，会同相关部门抓紧抓好贯彻落实工作，大力支持和更好满足居民刚性和改善性住房需求，促进北京房地产市场平稳健康发展。

2）深圳市住建局表示，将结合深圳市房地产实际情况，会同市有关部门、中央驻深机构和各区抓好贯彻落实，更好满足居民刚性和改善性住房需求，扎实推进保交楼工作，切实维护房地产市场秩序，促进深圳市房地产市场平稳健康发展。

3）广州市住建局也表示，将坚持稳中求进工作总基调，实事求是抓紧推进落实，将结合广州实际尽快推出有关政策措施，大力支持、更好地满足刚性和改善性住房需求，促进广州房地产市场平稳健康发展。

4）上海市住建委、市房管局表示，将坚持稳中求进工作总基调，完整、准确、全面贯彻新发展理念，因城施策，支持刚性和改善性住房需求，做好保交楼、保民生、保稳定工作，促进上海房地产市场平稳健康发展。

通过复盘我们发现近10年来，当地产鼓励政策推出后，A股由预期推动上涨，港股节奏滞后，往往等到销售、利润等指标兑现后开始上涨，价格弹性优于A股。若三季度各地地产限制政策打开，港股地产链或将迎来更大的投资机会。

5. 风险因素

1）国内经济复苏进度不及预期；2）政策不及预期。

编辑/jadyen

Source: Dai Qing Strategy Research
Author：Dai Qing，Wang Yifan

summary

The real estate boom has declined somewhat, but policy expectations continue to heat up, driving the Hong Kong stock real estate chain to rebound.The restoration trend of real estate sales slowed in the first half of 2023, and indicators such as new construction area, construction area, and development investment maintained negative growth. Commercial housing sales declined somewhat from the end of the second quarter. Overall, they were weaker than seasonal, and the second-hand housing transaction area also continued to weaken. The real estate policy recently set a new tone. The statement on real estate at the Politburo meeting of the Central Committee mentioned the need to “adapt to the new situation of major changes in the supply and demand relationship in China's real estate market, and adjust and optimize the real estate policy in due course.” Afterwards, first-tier cities such as Guangshen in the north responded one after another. Policy expectations are heating up, and the Hong Kong stock real estate chain may welcome a rebound in investment opportunities.
Are there better investment opportunities for Hong Kong stocks under the catalysis of real estate policies? First, in terms of location, the Hong Kong stock real estate chain has cheaper valuations and greater investment opportunities than A-shares. indicesLooking at the level, 1) The degree of coincidence of AH shares in the upstream industry is very high. The sector index trend is extremely correlated, and the overall valuation of Hong Kong stocks is lower than that of A-shares. 2) The valuation of Hong Kong stock real estate and property in the midstream industry is significantly lower than A-shares. Among them, the real estate sector has a higher AH premium rate. 3) The overall valuation of the Hong Kong household appliances and light industry manufacturing sectors in the downstream industry is lower than A-shares. From the perspective of leading stocks in the sector, whether they are companies listed in both AH or leading companies where A-share Hong Kong stocks can be compared, Hong Kong stocks are significantly cheaper and more cost-effective than A-shares.
Second, in terms of stock price flexibility, according to historical experience, under each round of real estate policy catalyzed by the Hong Kong stock real estate policy, the Hong Kong stock real estate chain has increased even more.Looking back at the historical real estate upward cycle, the valuation catalytic factor of A-share real estate companies is mainly the industry policy environment. Every time the real estate industry experiences a stage where policies are relaxed and implemented, the increase is greatest, and the certainty is high. The valuations of Hong Kong stock real estate companies also have a certain reaction to policy relaxation, but the main increase is still concentrated on the profit side implementation stage. The increase in transaction scale is the most direct factor catalyzing the rise of real estate companies in Hong Kong, China. In the two upward cycles before 2010, the increase in A-shares and valuations was greater than that of Hong Kong stocks. The pace was basically the same. After 2010, the increase in Hong Kong stocks and valuations was greater than that of A-shares. The A-share policy relaxation period rose, while Hong Kong stock earnings rose during the cashing period.
Third, in terms of market pace, there is a difference between A-shares and Hong Kong stocks. The rise in Hong Kong stocks was concentrated more on the mid to late stage performance implementation period, and showed greater flexibility.Through the review of Guotai Junan, it was discovered that after the introduction of policies to encourage local production in the past 10 years, A-shares have been driven by expectations. The pace of Hong Kong stocks has lagged behind, often until sales, profit and other indicators have been fulfilled before they begin to rise, and the price elasticity is superior to A-shares. After the July Politburo meeting positively set the tone for real estate, first-tier cities such as Guangzhou and Shenzhen in the north stated that they would “promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market,” and it is expected that policies such as “buy houses and deny loans” and lower interest rates on stock mortgages will be implemented one after another. Follow up to observe the performance flexibility brought about by the implementation of the policies, and the Hong Kong stock real estate chain may welcome investment opportunities.
Risk Factors:1) The recovery of the domestic economy falls short of expectations; 2) Policies fall short of expectations.

preface

The Politburo meeting of the Central Committee set a positive tone on real estate. First-tier cities such as Guangzhou and Shenzhen in the north responded one after another. Market expectations for relaxation of real estate policies are heating up, and the Hong Kong stock real estate chain may be ushered in investment opportunities. This report compares the current relationship between Hong Kong stocks and A-sharesIndustrial chainIn terms of valuation, Hong Kong stocks are cheaper; after a deep review of historical policy catalyzed market performance, the Hong Kong stock real estate chain started slowly, but the increase was relatively greater.

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1. Real estate sentiment declined somewhat from the second quarter

Judging from real estate investment demand, commercial housing sales have recently declined somewhat from the end of the second quarter. Overall, they are weaker than seasonal, and the second-hand housing transaction area has also continued to weaken.In terms of commercial housing sales, as of July 30, 2023, the sales area of commercial housing in first-tier cities fell 42% from the high at the end of the second quarter, and the sales area of commercial housing in second-tier and third-tier cities fell 49% and 35%, respectively, from the highs in the first quarter, and was weaker than seasonal overall. In terms of second-hand housing, the second-hand housing listings index has continued to weaken since March 2023, and is significantly lower than the same period in history. As for the weekly sales area of second-hand housing in key cities, Beijing and Hangzhou declined significantly from the highs at the end of the second quarter, at -56% and 59%, respectively. Beijing, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou all fell below the same period in history, while second-hand housing transactions in Chengdu performed relatively well.

2. The valuations of the Hong Kong stock real estate chain industry and individual stocks are significantly lower than A-shares

The “interconnection” was followed by the integration of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong markets. Since the signing of the “Joint Notice” in 2016, the Hong Kong Stock Connect stock range has been expanded twice on November 27, 2020 and March 3, 2023. The correlation between Hong Kong stocks and A-shares is increasing. The business of listed companies in the AH market is highly related, and the boom cycle converges. We discuss the valuation situation between AH and industry leaders in the upper, middle, and lower reaches of the real estate chain, as well as companies and industry leaders listed on the AH market at the same time, to provide investors with a new perspective.

2.1. Industry valuations

Due to the different trading styles between mainland and overseas markets, under the same cyclical trend, there will also be some differences in the valuation performance of companies of the same type listed in different regions.When the overall background trend of the industry is the same, the A-share market focuses on changes in expectations, so stock price performance is most obvious when direction changes, while Hong Kong stocks pay more attention to changes in performance. On the profit side, especially when the company's sales are realized, the stock price performance is most obvious.

The valuation of A-shares in the real estate chain industry is significantly higher than that of Hong Kong stocks. At the same time, both valuation centers continue to decline.Due to differences in investor structure, liquidity, and investment logic, the valuation of the Hong Kong stock real estate chain industry is significantly lower than that of A-shares, and has maintained a relatively stable trend. As China's social and economic development enters a mature period and the urbanization process slows down, the real estate industry gradually moves from a growth period to a period of stability. The market capitalization scale of companies within the matching industry continues to rise, but the valuation center continues to decline, reflecting changes in the development of the industry.

1) Upstream industries: coal, iron and steel, non-ferrous metals

The degree of coincidence of AH shares in the upstream industry is very high. The sector index trend is extremely correlated, and the overall valuation of Hong Kong stocks is lower than that of A shares.

1) Since 2017, the A-share and Hong Kong stock coal sector indices have risen 75% and 165% respectively, the corresponding sectorPEThe valuation of A-shares fell 63% to 6.5 times from 17.4 times in 2017, the PE of Hong Kong stocks fell 48% to 4.7 times from 9.2 times in 2017, and the AH premium rate was 37%.

2) Steel is a strong cycle industry. Since April 2017, the A-share and Hong Kong stock steel sector indices have risen 5% and fallen 31% respectively. The corresponding sector, PE, the valuation of A-shares, fell 9% to 25.0 times from 27.5 times in 2017, and the Hong Kong stock PE rose 70% to 46.5 times from 27.3 times, with valuations higher than A-shares.

3) Since the non-ferrous sector divides many types of metals, including gold, copper, aluminum, and rare metals, and there is a big difference in revenue and net profit source structures between AH and listed companies, the correlation between AH sector index trends is weak, and the valuation difference is greatest. Since April 2017, the A-share and Hong Kong non-ferrous sector indices have risen 38% and 52% respectively. The corresponding sector PE valuation of A shares fell 74% to 15.3 times from 58.5 times in 2017, Hong Kong stock PE fell 70% to 9.0 times from 29.9 times in 2017, and the AH premium rate was 70%.

2) Midstream industry: real estate, property

The real estate and property valuations of Hong Kong stocks are significantly lower than A-shares. Among them, the real estate sector has a higher AH premium rate.

1) Since the 2016 Central Economic Work Conference first proposed “don't fry housing,” both A-share and Hong Kong stock real estate indices have shown a volatile downward trend. Since April 2017, the A-share and Hong Kong real estate sector indices have declined by 26% and 24% respectively. The corresponding sector PE valuation of A-shares fell 28% to 12.5 times from 17.3 times in 2017, Hong Kong stock PE fell 41% to 5.9 times from 9.9 times in 2017. The AH premium rate was extremely high, at 113%.

2) The A-share and Hong Kong stock property management sector indices have each declined by 2% and 51% since 2020. The corresponding sector PE valuation of A-shares fell 14% to 25.3 times from 29.6 times in 2021, Hong Kong stock PE fell 15% to 21.9 times from 25.7 times, and the AH premium rate was 15%.

3) Downstream industries: home appliances, light industry

The overall valuation of the home appliance and light industry manufacturing sectors of the Hong Kong stock is lower than that of A-shares.

1) Home appliances are downstream in the real estate chain. The completion of real estate relatively directly affects demand for home appliances on the real estate side, but from index observations, we found that the real estate restriction policy did not have a significant impact on the home appliance industry. Since April 2017, the A-share and Hong Kong-stock home appliance sector indices have risen 43% and 156% respectively. The corresponding sector PE valuation of A shares fell 25% to 16.2 times from 21.6 times in 2017, Hong Kong stock PE fell 23% to 13.7 times from 17.8 times in 2017, and the AH premium rate was 18%.

2) The A-share and Hong Kong light industry sector indices have each declined by 12% and 55% since 2017. The corresponding sector PE valuation of A-shares fell 7% to 34.8 times from 37.5 times in 2017, Hong Kong stock PE increased 63% to 24.8 times from 15.2 times, and the AH premium rate was 40%.

2.2. Individual stock valuations

1) Upstream industries: coal, non-ferrous metals, iron and steel.

The overall valuation of Hong Kong-listed upstream resource products companies is lower than A-shares.

1) The leading listed companies in the coal industry are basically listed in AH: China Shenhua, Yankuang Energy, and China Coal Energy, as well as Shaanxi Coal, an industry leader that is not listed on the Hong Kong stock market. The average PE of leading A-share companies was 5.6 times, higher than the average PE of Hong Kong stocks of 3.7 times.

2) There are many AH companies in the non-ferrous metals industry listed at the same time: Zijin Mining, Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, China Aluminum, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Shandong Gold. Leaders not listed on the Hong Kong stock market include Huayou Cobalt, Northern Rare Earth, and Yunlu Co., Ltd. The average PE of leading A-share companies is 23.5 times, slightly higher than the average PE of Hong Kong stocks of 19.6 times.

3) Key Hong Kong-listed companies in the steel industry include Angang Steel Co., Ltd., Tiangong International, and China Oriental Group. Leading A-shares include Baosteel Co., Ltd., Baogang Co., Ltd., and Valin Steel. The average PE of leading A-share companies was -27.7 times, lower than the average PE of Hong Kong stocks of 1.4 times.

2) Midstream industry: real estate, property.

The valuations of Midstream Real Estate and Hong Kong-listed property companies are slightly lower than A-shares.

1) Leading Hong Kong stocks in the real estate industry include Sun Hung Kai Properties, China Resources Land, Changshi Group and China Overseas Development. A-shares include Poly Development, Vanke A, China Merchants Shekou, and Jindi Group. The average PE of leading A-share companies is 12.5 times, slightly higher than the average PE of Hong Kong stocks of 9.6 times.

2) Leading Hong Kong stocks in the property industry include China Resources Vientiane Life, CNOOC Properties, Country Garden Service and Greentown Service. A-shares include investment savings, special distribution services, and Royal Palace International. The average PE of leading A-share companies was 32.6 times, slightly higher than the average PE of Hong Kong stocks of 23.4 times.

3) Downstream industries: home appliances, light industry.

The valuations of leading Hong Kong stock companies in the downstream home appliances and light industry are significantly lower than A-shares.

1) In the home appliance industry, AH listed companies include Haier Smart Home Appliance and Hisense Home Appliance. Leading A-shares include Midea Group, Gree Electric, and Sanhua Intelligent Control. The average PE of leading A-share companies was 18.8 times, slightly higher than the average PE of Hong Kong stocks of 16.0 times.

2) Hong Kong stock leaders in the light industry include SMOORE International and Minhua Holdings, while A-share leaders include Oupai Home, Gujia Home, and Sun Paper. The average PE of leading A-share companies was -4.6 times, slightly lower than the average PE of Hong Kong stocks of -0.2 times.

3. Resumption of the elastic history of AH shares in the real estate chain

In order to compare the price elasticity of AH Real Estate stocks when the market arrived, we have reviewed several stages of sharp increases in the real estate index in history, from July 2005 to October 2007, November 2008 to July 2009, October 2011 to January 2013, and March 2014 to February 2018. Looking back at the past few cycles,The valuation catalytic factor for A-share real estate companies is mainly the industry policy environment. Every time the real estate industry experiences a stage where policies are relaxed and implemented, the increase is the biggest, and the certainty is high. The valuations of Hong Kong stock real estate companies also have a certain reaction to policy relaxation, but the main increase is still concentrated on the profit implementation stage. The increase in transaction scale is the most direct factor catalyzing the rise of real estate companies in Hong Kong, China.

Looking at it in stages, in 05-07, the urbanization process progressed rapidly, and the immediate demand for housing and the popularity of investment speculation continued to drive the rapid rise in real estate prices. In March 2005, the State Council issued the “Notice on Effectively Stabilizing Housing Prices,” the “Eight Rules of the State.” A total of eight opinions were put forward to stabilize housing prices. Although the “Notice” “brakes” housing prices, the relationship between supply and demand fundamentally determines that the rise in housing prices is difficult to control. The A-share real estate index soared 837% during the period, while the Hong Kong stock real estate index rose 220%. The biggest increase in the range of leading A-share companies was 1605%, and the average increase in the range of leading Hong Kong stock companies was 591%. The valuation of leading A-share companies increased from 8.5 times to 98.1 times, and the valuation of leading Hong Kong stock companies increased from 15.9 times to 42.3 times.

In 08-09, due to the favorable market environment and the cooperation of the profit side of the real estate industry, the A-share real estate index rose 217% and the Hong Kong stock real estate index rose 160% during the period. The average biggest increase for mainstream A-share real estate companies reached 250%, while the average biggest increase for Hong Kong-listed real estate companies reached 184%. The average PE level of leading A-share real estate companies increased 233% to 42 times from 12.6 times, while the valuation level of listed Hong Kong real estate companies increased 225% to 35.1 times from 10.8 times. At the end of 2011, credit policies began to be gradually relaxed. Interest rates were continuously lowered and cut in the first half of 2012, and performance on the profit side gradually improved. There was a certain difference in the valuation performance of A-share and Hong Kong-stock real estate companies in the process of industry policy and profit shift. The stock prices of A-share companies began to react when stimulus policies appeared at the end of '11, and the industry index rose 38%. Hong Kong stock real estate companies did not immediately show a clear rise after policy expectations were changed. Instead, they only improved after trading volume was realized in the second half of 2012. The index rose 76%, and the elasticity was greater than that of A-shares. The biggest average increase for leading A-share companies during the period was 81%, and the biggest increase in Hong Kong stocks was 139%. In terms of valuation, the average valuation of leading A-shares did not change much, from 10.3 times to 10.9 times, while the valuation of Hong Kong stocks increased sharply by 89% to 11.3 times from 6 times.

The pace and valuation of the AH real estate sector in 14-18 also showed a big difference. In June 2014, real estate companies in the two places respectively reached the lowest valuation levels in history. A-share real estate companies were 8.7 times, while Hong Kong stocks were 4.4 times. Starting in July 2014, purchase restriction policies in various regions were relaxed one after another, and then over a period of nearly 4 quarters until the 3rd quarter of '15, the real estate industry continued to release benefits from policy to capital. Judging from the performance of A-share real estate companies, from July '14 to June '15, superpositionbull marketThe impact is that valuations have continuously risen from their lowest level for nearly 3 quarters, reaching an increase of 241%. However, at this stage, Hong Kong stocks did not show the same enthusiasm; they only rose 34%. The increase in valuation of mainstream Hong Kong stock real estate companies mainly occurred during the period of sharp year-on-year increase in sales area. Among them, the year-on-year growth rate of sales area turned positive in March 2015, and the valuation level increased by 41%; the 4th quarter of 2015 was also a period of sharp sales growth, and the valuation level of Hong Kong stocks remained high for the full year of 2016. From the fourth quarter of 2016 to 17, after regulatory policies were introduced, sales performance exceeded expectations, and the real estate industry index rose 59%. At this stage, the A-share real estate industry index rose only 13%. In terms of valuation, from the fourth quarter of 2016 to February 2018, the average valuation of leading Hong Kong stock companies rose sharply by 45% from 8.7 times to 12.6 times, while the average valuation of leading A-share companies fell 9% from 12.9 times to 11.5 times. There was a clear difference in the pace and valuation of real estate companies in the two places.

4. Policy expectations are heating up, and investment in the Hong Kong stock real estate chain is worth paying attention to

Faced with the downward pressure on the real estate market, there have been obvious positive changes in real estate policies recently.The restoration trend of real estate sales slowed in the first half of 2023, and indicators such as new construction area, construction area, and development investment maintained negative growth. The real estate policy recently set a new tone. The statement on real estate at the Politburo meeting of the Central Committee mentioned the need to “adapt to the new situation of major changes in the supply and demand relationship in China's real estate market and adjust and optimize the real estate policy in due course.” The biggest change compared to previous Politburo meetings was that “housing is not hyped up,” and a judgment on the relationship between real estate supply and demand appeared for the first time, setting the tone for the subsequent formulation of real estate policies.

In addition, Minister of Housing and Construction Ni Hong further clarified the specific direction of supporting real estate policies during an enterprise symposium held on July 28, mainly including “it is necessary to continue to consolidate the steady upward trend in the real estate market, strongly support rigid and improved housing demand, and further implement policy measures such as reducing the down payment ratio and loan interest rate for the purchase of the first housing unit, tax relief for improved housing purchases, and 'no need to buy a loan' for personal housing loans.”

After the policy was set positively, first-tier cities responded one after another.

1) The Beijing Municipal Housing and Construction Commission stated that it adheres to the general tone of the work of stabilization and progress, and works with relevant departments to quickly carry out implementation work, strongly support and better meet the rigid and improved housing needs of residents, and promote the stable and healthy development of the Beijing real estate market.

2) The Housing and Construction Bureau of Shenzhen Municipality stated that it will take into account the actual real estate situation in Shenzhen and work with relevant municipal departments, central agencies and districts to better meet residents' rigid and improved housing needs, solidly push forward construction maintenance work, effectively maintain order in the real estate market, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market in Shenzhen.

3) The Guangzhou Municipal Housing and Construction Bureau also stated that it will adhere to the general tone of the work of stabilization and progress, and push forward implementation as soon as possible in line with Guangzhou's actual situation to strongly support and better meet the needs of rigid and improved housing and promote the stable and healthy development of the Guangzhou real estate market.

4) The Shanghai Municipal Housing and Construction Commission and the Municipal Housing Administration stated that they will adhere to the general tone of the work of stability and progress, fully, accurately and comprehensively implement the new development concept, support rigid and improved housing needs according to the city's policies, do a good job of protecting traffic buildings, people's livelihood, and stability, and promote the stable and healthy development of the Shanghai real estate market.

Through a review of the market, we have discovered that in the past 10 years, after the introduction of the local production incentive policy, A-shares have been driven by expectations. The pace of Hong Kong stocks has lagged behind, often until sales, profit and other indicators have been fulfilled before they begin to rise. The price elasticity is superior to that of A-shares. If local real estate restriction policies open in the third quarter, the Hong Kong stock real estate chain may welcome greater investment opportunities.

5. risk factors

1) The recovery of the domestic economy falls short of expectations; 2) Policies fall short of expectations.

Editor/jadyen

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观点 | 政策预期不断升温，带动港股地产链反弹