The leader of liquefied warehousing in bonded area, double-round realization of warehousing trade.

Bonded technology was listed backdoor in 1999. In 2001, it set up a subsidiary company, Cheung Kong International, to develop the main liquefied storage industry. At present, it manages the tank capacity of 1.1079 million m? Compared with similar enterprises, the company has unique advantages in location (Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone), brand (established state-owned enterprise), qualification (dangerous goods logistics qualification, cooperation with Shangqing), and information service capability (online delivery platform). Finally, the business model of two-round realization of liquefied warehousing service and trade delivery platform was formed. in 2022, the company's liquefied warehousing gross profit margin of 61%, ranking first in the same industry.

Supply: scarcity of resources and leading profits

Liquefied storage tanks and dangerous goods warehouses are scarce real estate resources with certain regional monopoly attributes. Among them, storage tanks are generally only built along the coast or along the river, which need matching shoreline and wharf resources, and the new supply is very limited; high-quality warehouses are built in the chemical park, although there is an increment, but resources are still scarce. The resource attribute determines the leading profitability of the track. General petrochemical warehousing enterprises have a ROIC of 6-8% and a gross profit margin of 60%, which obviously outperforms other aspects of real estate and chemical logistics.

Requirements: short-term passive accumulation, long-term structural optimization

In recent years, the demand of petrochemical warehousing customers has increased steadily with the development of the petrochemical industry. The average inventory CAGR of common liquid chemicals in 2017-2022 is 2.5%. The highlight lies in two structural changes:

The commissioning of the ① Refining and Chemical Project drives the domestic substitution trend (domestic trade and coastal resources benefit) the tighter regulation of ② brings about an increase in the proportion of compliance demand (brands benefit). Since the first half of 2023, there is a trend of passive accumulation of major liquid chemicals in China, but the inventory of ethylene glycol in Zhangjiagang is still declining compared with the same period last year due to the domestic substitution trend.

Investment advice: management improvement, growth starting point

Since 2022, historical issues such as bonded technology litigation and property freeze have been resolved, while management has completed iterations, and the company is standing at the starting point of a new round of growth.

① short-term expansion category to improve rental rate: early companies mainly rely on imported ethylene glycol, 2023H1 company by expanding new categories to increase rental rate, performance is expected to grow at a high speed, logic initially realized; ② mid-term close mergers and acquisitions to increase market share: subject to the property freeze, the company's tank capacity stopped growing for nearly 4 years; the company's extension development restarted after the predicament was reversed, and the elasticity of subsequent capacity expansion is optimistic in the medium term. ③ long-term intelligent logistics to improve profitability: with the advantages of delivery warehouse and the qualification barriers of state-owned enterprises, the company's intelligent logistics platform is expected to go out with the extension strategy, and the long-term flow realization ability is worthy of attention.

Profit forecast and investment rating: we estimate that the operating income of bonded technology from 2023 to 2025 will be 1.197 billion yuan, 1.403 billion yuan and 1.596 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit of returning mother will be 253 million yuan, 309 million yuan and 343 million yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE from 2023 to 2025 will be 18.82,15.42 and 13.88 times respectively. With the continuous innovation of traditional logistics "going out" and intelligent logistics, the company's profits are expected to grow under two-wheel drive and maintain its "buy" rating.

Risk hints: production accidents, lower-than-expected demand, lower-than-expected growth of smart logistics business, lower-than-expected mergers and acquisitions, goodwill impairment risk, major policy changes, large-scale natural disasters, domestic and international markets, exchange valuation system can not be simply compared, the corresponding calculation is for reference only, specific based on the company disclosure data, small market capitalization company secondary market liquidity risk and stock price volatility risk.