Items:
On August 3, the company released a half-year report on 2023. 23H1's revenue was 9.325 billion yuan, year-on-year-42.93%, return-home net profit 4.426 billion, year-on-year-53.53%; deduction of non-return net profit 4.425 billion, year-on-year-53.56%, return-home net interest rate 47.47%, year-on-year-10.82pct. 23Q2 has revenue of 4.468 billion yuan, net profit of 1.515 billion yuan, year-on-year-70.94%, month-on-month ratio-47.95%, deduction of non-return net profit of 1.515 billion yuan, year-on-year-71%, month-on-month ratio-47.92%, net interest rate of 33.91%, year-on-year-29.58pct.
Comments:
The production and marketing of polysilicon has maintained growth, and production capacity has been released rapidly. 23H1's polysilicon output reached 79200 tons, + 18.66% compared with the same period last year, accounting for about 12% of domestic polysilicon production, which is in the leading level in the industry; the company continues to increase sales efforts, and the product destocking strategy is effective. 23H1's polysilicon sales volume of 76800 tons, + 0.59% compared with the same period last year, is basically the same as the same period last year. In terms of production capacity, the company has formed an annual production capacity of 205000 tons of high-purity polysilicon, the first phase of the 100000-ton high-purity polysilicon project in Inner Mongolia has reached production, the second phase of the 100000-ton project is expected to be completed and put into production by the end of 23, and the company's annual production capacity is expected to reach 305000 tons. 23Q3 is expected to produce 5.5-57000 tons of polysilicon and 19.3-198000 tons in 23 years.
N-type silicon has been shipped in bulk, and semiconductor-grade polysilicon has been expanded smoothly. Affected by the release of domestic silicon production capacity and the increase in supply, the price of silicon bottomed out in the first half of the year. The unit price of polysilicon of 23H1 company was 120.52 yuan / kg, which was-43.44% compared with the same period last year. The company's profitability was under pressure. According to the data of Silicon Industry Branch, as of August 2, the average price of N-type material has reached 80.4 yuan / kg, and the price difference between N-type material and single crystal densifier is about 10.2 yuan / kg,N/P. The company has now realized the batch sale of N-type high purity silicon material, and is expected to enjoy premium dividend in the future. The company's progress in developing semiconductor-grade polysilicon is smooth. At present, the 1000-ton semiconductor-grade polysilicon project is expected to be put into production in 23Q3, which is expected to become a new profit growth point.
Reduce energy consumption + self-supply of raw materials to help the company continue to reduce costs. 1) in terms of energy consumption, the company independently developed a hierarchical energy recovery system to further reduce the comprehensive energy consumption of polysilicon, saving 1.63% compared with the beginning of the year. The unit cost of polysilicon of 23H1 company is 51.36yuan / kg, which is-18.66% compared with the same period last year. 2) in terms of raw materials, the 150000 ton high purity industrial silicon project of Baotou Phase I of the company is expected to be completed and put into production, which can be supported by the polysilicon project of the company, and the cost will be further reduced by increasing the self-supply ratio of raw materials. In addition, through technological upgrading and the commissioning of new projects, the proportion of materials used for single crystal silicon wafers has reached more than 99%, which is at the domestic advanced level.
Investment advice: the company layout upstream industrial chain, continue to reduce costs and increase efficiency, silicon industry leading position. Taking into account the rapid decline in silicon prices, the continuous release of new capacity, silicon prices may be low operation, we adjust the profit forecast, the company's 2023-2025 net profit is expected to be 60.29max 4455.4824 million yuan (the previous value of 142.3 PE 157.8G 16.84 billion yuan), the current market value corresponding to the PE is respectively times 14-19-18. With reference to the comparable company valuation, the company is given 16x PE in 2023, corresponding to the target price of 45.13 yuan, maintaining a "recommended" rating.
Risk tips: photovoltaic installed demand is lower than expected, the company's capacity release is less than expected, product price competition intensifies, raw material price fluctuations and so on.