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科拓生物(300858)2023年半年度业绩点评:复配业务边际改善 益生菌业务低于预期

Cotto Biotech (300858) 2023 semi-annual performance review: marginal improvement in compounding business probiotic business falls short of expectations

東吳證券 ·  Aug 4, 2023 13:07

The company released its semi-annual report for 2023: 23H1 achieved a total operating income of 140 million yuan, a year-on-year income of-10.8%, a net profit of 40 million yuan, a year-on-year net profit of-10%, and a non-return net profit of 32 million yuan, a year-on-year profit of-12.5%. 23Q2 achieved total operating income of 68 million yuan, year-on-year-4.2%; net profit of 20 million yuan,-5.1%; and non-return net profit of 14 million yuan,-16% of the same period last year. The performance was lower than expected.

Downstream demand is picking up, and the marginal improvement of compounding business: 23H1's compound food additive revenue reached 42 million yuan, down 48% from the same period last year. We believe that the decline in 23H1 compounding business revenue is mainly due to the weak demand for acid at room temperature downstream and the further contraction of downstream customer demand after the rise in the price of mixed raw materials.

According to the feedback of channel research, the acid demand at room temperature downstream of 23Q2 is warmer than that of 23Q1, and we expect the year-on-year decline of 23Q2's compounding business revenue to be narrower than that of 23Q1.

Probiotics business 23Q2 decelerated month-on-month, lower than expected: 23H1 company edible probiotics business income of 86 million yuan, year-on-year + 61%, accounting for 62% of revenue, accounting for more than compound additives, becoming the company's largest share of revenue, the strongest profitability, the most obvious market competitive advantage of the business sector. We expect 23Q2's food probiotics revenue to continue to increase year-on-year, but due to the weakening downstream demand, 23Q2 food probiotics business revenue declined month-on-month, lower than expected.

The product structure has been upgraded and the company's profitability has been improved: 23H1 achieved a gross profit margin of 51.9%, year-on-year + 1.1pct, in which the gross profit margin of compound / edible probiotics business was 31% Universe 65%, year-on-year-14.4/+0.7pct. We believe that the gross profit margin of 23H1's compounding business is much lower than the same period last year, mainly due to the increase in the price of composite raw materials superimposed by downstream customers. The tonnage price and cost of 23H1's compounding business are-12% and 11% respectively compared with the same period last year. The company's probiotic business has high technical barriers, strong bargaining power, stable and high gross profit margin, and the increase in the proportion of income promotes the improvement of the company's gross profit margin. The sales / management / R & D / financial expense rate of 23H1 Company is respectively year-on-year + 3.9/+0.3/+3.8/-6.7pct, and the increase of sales expense rate is mainly due to the increased publicity efforts of 23H1 Company. Product structure upgrade superimposed cost optimization, 23H1 company home net interest rate of 28.82%, year-on-year + 0.25pct.

Profit forecast and investment rating: considering the lower-than-expected growth of the company's 23Q2 food probiotics business, the company lowered its revenue forecast for 23-25 to RMB 4.6 million (previously expected to be RMB 620 million), and + 14%, 34% and 30% compared with the previous year. The 23-25 homing net profit is expected to be 1.84 / 251 million yuan (previously expected to be 1.52 million yuan), compared with the same period last year, which is + 17%, 43%, 36%, and PE is 35, 25, 18x, respectively, maintaining the "overweight" rating.

Risk tips: sharp rise in raw material prices, intensified competition in the industry, less-than-expected recovery in consumption, high customer concentration, and lower-than-expected new customer development.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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