High barriers to cost advantage to maintain "buy" rating
According to the company's 23-and-a-half-year annual performance report, the company's 23H1 achieved operating income of 9.325 billion yuan, down 42.93% from the same period last year; net profit from its mother was 4.426 billion yuan, down 53.53% from the same period last year; and 4.425 billion yuan was deducted from non-net profit, down 53.56% from the same period last year, mainly due to a significant drop in silicon prices.
Considering that the price of silicon material has declined greatly compared with last year, and with the continuous release of silicon capacity, the price of silicon material will be low for a long time, we downgrade the company's EPS for 23-25 years to 2.60 EPS 1.68amp 1.90 yuan (the previous value is 6.77shock 7.17shock 7.65 yuan), and refer to the consistent forecast of Wind, it is comparable to the company's 23-year PE of 7.33 times, considering the rapid release of the company's polysilicon capacity and the high cost advantage barrier. Optimistic that the company has profit flexibility, give the company 23 years 17xPE, the target price is 44.20 yuan (the previous value of 57.55 yuan), maintain the "buy" rating.
Rapid release of polysilicon production capacity to support the development of silicon business
According to the company's 23-and-a-half-year performance report, 23H1 produces 79200 tons of polysilicon and sells 76800 tons. According to CPIA statistics, 23H1's domestic polysilicon output is about 651700 tons, and the company's polysilicon output accounts for 12.15% of the domestic polysilicon output, and the production capacity is in the first echelon of the industry. According to the company announcement, the average selling price of 23H1 polysilicon is 120.52 yuan / kg (excluding tax), down 43.44% from the same period last year. The decline in silicon price erodes the company's profits. As the company expands its production capacity, it is expected to partially hedge against the impact of silicon price cuts on earnings. According to the company's report, the company expects 23Q3 polysilicon production to reach 5.5-57000 tons, and to reach 19.3-198000 tons in 2023. The increase in silicon shipments is expected to promote the further development of the company's silicon business.
The price of silicon has risen in the short term, and the downstream demand has improved significantly.
The latest data from the Silicon Industry Association on August 2 show that the silicon market continued to rise this week, mainly due to the recent signing of large orders by downstream enterprises to maintain high production. According to the latest data from the Silicon Industry Association on August 3, the operating rate of integrated enterprises remained between 80% and 100%, while the operating rate of other enterprises increased to between 95% and 100%. According to the company's report, by mid-July, the market price of polysilicon has risen by about 15% and 20% compared with June, and the company's July profit has recovered from June. As a silicon material leader, the company is expected to fully benefit. In the long run, countries around the world are actively layout around the dual-carbon goal, in the context of accelerating the global transformation to clean energy, the photovoltaic industry still has broad growth space, and the company is expected to fully benefit from the wave of clean energy development.
Risk hint: photovoltaic downstream demand is not as expected, capacity expansion is not as expected, competition risk is intensified.