Public Hong Kong Stock Fund's Second Quarterly Report 2023: Consensus Plus Communications Auto, Computer Coal Getting Cold

國金證券 · Aug 3, 2023 09:22

来源：国金证券

投资港股基金数量减少、规模缩水一成：2023年二季度港股几乎单边下跌，市场悲观情绪浓厚。反映在公募基金对港股态度上，二季度公募港股基金共251只、规模合计3636亿元，对比一季度数量减少17只、规模环比-12.6%。247只两季可比的样本二季度规模合计3600亿，相同样本上季规模4055亿，环比-11.2%。

“高港股”仓位略降，“港股QDII-AH平衡”明显撤离港股：“高港股”两类基金及“港股QDI-AH平衡”基金的港股占净值比例皆下降，其中“港股QDIAH平衡”的港股比重回落达12个点，投资重心部分移至美股。但“港股通-AH平衡”基金反而有六成加仓了港股。

行业冷热门：普跌背景下，二季度公募港股基金对头部行业的集中程度有所降低，尝试在更多领域寻找机会。

1、“中字头”通信股连续两季成为市场共识的加仓标的。
2、因汽车行业二季度形势好转、智能化进程有望加速，汽车股成为当季热门。
3、“中字头”石油石化连续两季受大型基金青睐，而上季热门的煤炭、有色遇冷。
4、上季抢手的计算机在本季遭遇资金流出。5、QDII基金连续两季减持消费互联网相关的传媒、零售、社服行业。

“高港股”基金“抱团”程度下降，作为绝对头部的$腾讯控股 (00700.HK)$集中程度略降，部分“中字头”通信股及能源股瓜分了热度。持股集中度方面，由于二季度港股投资机会有限，基金整体减少了尾部个股布局，使得平均重仓股集中度小幅提升。

个股冷热门：“腾讯”保持首位，重仓基金数量遥遥领先但本季略有减少；“美团”连续三季居次席，且重仓基金数量持续缩水。

通信股连续两季成为焦点，其中$中兴通讯 (00763.HK)$吸引17只新增基金，为本季增量第一；上季大热的$中国移动 (00941.HK)$再获15只新基金青睐，重仓基金数量跻身港股前三。

$快手-W (01024.HK)$本季重回热门，新增基金10只。汽车股$比亚迪股份 (01211.HK)$、$小鹏汽车-W (09868.HK)$、$理想汽车-W (02015.HK)$分别被10只、10只、8只新基金重仓。而$香港交易所 (00388.HK)$被21只基金剔出重仓，上季炙手可热的$金山软件 (03888.HK)$从17只基金的重仓名单淡出，$华虹半导体 (01347.HK)$、$舜宇光学科技 (02382.HK)$重仓基金分别锐减11只、8只，$阿里巴巴-SW (09988.HK)$的基金减少8只。

港股新入选重仓股数量较少，胜率平平：二季度港股新进重仓股仅29只，当季收涨仅16只。由于二季度港股市场单边下跌、机会寥寥，基金对于新进重仓港股的选股胜率低于上季，主要被医药股大跌拖累，$广深铁路股份 (00525.HK)$涨71%居首。

风险提示：海外货币政策路径、国内经济复苏进程、刺激政策落实情况。

编辑/Somer

Source: Guojin Securities

The number of funds investing in Hong Kong stocks declined and the scale shrunk by 10%: Hong Kong stocks fell almost unilaterally in the second quarter of 2023, and market pessimism was strong. Reflected in the attitude of public funds towards Hong Kong stocks, there were 251 public Hong Kong stock funds in the second quarter, with a total size of 363.6 billion yuan. Compared with the first quarter, the number decreased by 17, and the scale was -12.6% month-on-month. The total size of the 247 two-quarter comparable samples in the second quarter was 360 billion dollars. The size of the same sample was 405.5 billion last quarter, -11.2% over the previous quarter.

The positions of “high Hong Kong stocks” fell slightly, and the “QDII-AH balance of Hong Kong stocks” clearly withdrew from Hong Kong stocks:The share of Hong Kong stocks in the “High Hong Kong Stock” type funds and the “Hong Kong Stock QDI-AH Balance” fund has declined. Among them, the share of Hong Kong stocks in the “Hong Kong Stock QDIAH Balance” has fallen back to 12 points, and the investment focus has partially moved to US stocks. However, the “Hong Kong Stock Connect - AH Balance” fund instead increased its holdings in Hong Kong stocks by 60%.

Hot and cold in the industry:Against the backdrop of general decline, the concentration of public Hong Kong stock funds in leading industries declined somewhat in the second quarter, trying to find opportunities in more fields.

1. For two consecutive quarters, the “Chinese character” communications stock has been the target for additional positions agreed by the market.
2. Due to the improvement in the situation of the automobile industry in the second quarter and the expected acceleration of the intelligent process, auto stocks became the hottest of the quarter.
3. The “Chinese word” petroleum and petrochemical has been favored by large funds for two consecutive seasons, while coal and non-ferrous metals, which were popular last season, have been cold.
4. Last season's sought-after computers experienced a capital outflow this season. 5. The QDII Fund reduced its holdings in the consumer internet-related media, retail, and social service industries for two consecutive quarters.

The degree to which “high-value Hong Kong stock” funds “form groups” has declined,As an absolute head$TENCENT (00700.HK)$The degree of concentration has declined slightly, and some “Chinese alphabet” telecommunications stocks and energy stocks split their popularity. In terms of shareholding concentration, due to limited investment opportunities in Hong Kong stocks in the second quarter, the fund reduced the overall layout of individual stocks at the end, resulting in a slight increase in the average concentration of heavy-held stocks.

Individual stocks are hot and cold: “Tencent” maintains the top position, and the number of heavily held funds is far ahead, but there was a slight decline this season; “Meituan” ranked second for three consecutive quarters, and the number of heavily held funds continued to shrink.

Communications stocks have been the focus for two consecutive quarters.which$ZTE (00763.HK)$Attracting 17 new funds, the biggest increase this season; the most popular last season$CHINA MOBILE (00941.HK)$It was also favored by 15 new funds, and the number of heavily held funds ranked in the top three in Hong Kong stocks.

$KUAISHOU-W (01024.HK)$It has returned to popularity this season, with 10 new funds added.Automobile stocks$BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$,$XPENG-W (09868.HK)$,$LI AUTO-W (02015.HK)$It was heavily held by 10, 10, and 8 new funds, respectively. whereas$HKEX (00388.HK)$It was removed from heavy positions by 21 funds. Last season was very popular$KINGSOFT (03888.HK)$Faded out of the heavy holdings list of 17 funds,$HUA HONG SEMI (01347.HK)$,$SUNNY OPTICAL (02382.HK)$Heavy-held funds declined sharply by 11 and 8, respectively.$BABA-SW (09988.HK)$The number of funds was reduced by 8.

The number of newly selected heavy stock positions in Hong Kong stocks is small, and the win rate is mediocre:Hong Kong stocks entered only 29 new heavy-traded stocks in the second quarter, and closed up only 16 for the quarter. Due to the unilateral decline in the Hong Kong stock market in the second quarter and few opportunities, the fund's winning rate for newly heavily stocked Hong Kong stocks was lower than last quarter, mainly hampered by the sharp decline in pharmaceutical stocks.$GUANGSHEN RAIL (00525.HK)$It topped the list with a 71% increase.

Risk warning: overseas monetary policy path, domestic economic recovery process, implementation of stimulus policies.

Editor/Somer

The translation is provided by third-party software.

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公募港股基金2023年二季报：共识加通信汽车，计算机煤炭遇冷

Public Hong Kong Stock Fund's Second Quarterly Report 2023: Consensus Plus Communications Auto, Computer Coal Getting Cold

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