Ancai Hi-Tech is an old leading enterprise of glass shell, and its parent company is capable of strategic transformation of new energy and high-end glass. The company's photovoltaic glass has the advantages of low cost and good product rate of its own natural gas pipeline, and the company is the second company in the world to supply photothermal glass in batches. Medium borosilicate medicinal glass tube products have been officially released. In the short term, the profit of photovoltaic glass is expected to pick up at the bottom under the optimization of supply and demand and the relief of cost pressure, the competitive advantage brought by the company's natural gas pipeline transportation + technology is expected to continue, and the cost competitiveness under capacity expansion is expected to gradually appear; in the medium to long term, with the accelerated release of downstream demand, the company's key cultivation of photothermal glass and medicinal glass is expected to create new growth points. Cover for the first time, giving the company a "buy" rating.
Company profile: color glass shell leader, strategic transformation of new energy glass. Founded in 1998, the company was once the largest color glass shell production base in China. In 2007, Henan Investment Group became its actual controller, actively empowered the company's management, and continued to carry out strategic transformation with the help of state capital. In 2008, the company entered the field of photovoltaic glass and became the first batch of domestic enterprises engaged in photovoltaic glass production. Since 2019, the company has continued to add new energy glass, and the production capacity of photovoltaic glass has expanded rapidly. it has become the second enterprise in the world with the ability to supply photothermal glass in batches; the company entered the field of medicinal glass in 2023, and the borosilicate medicinal glass tube project was ignited and put into production in April, and the industrial structure has been continuously optimized and upgraded.
Photothermal glass business: the first-mover advantage is obvious and is expected to benefit from the accelerated release of demand. Photothermal power generation is a power generation method that converts solar energy into thermal energy, and then converts thermal energy into electric energy, with its own large-scale, low-cost and high-safety energy storage system, which has a good development prospect in the process of "double carbon" goal landing. Limited by cost, policy and other factors, China's photothermal power generation industry is still in its early stage of development, but with the continuous increase of policy, according to the "notice of the General Department of the National Energy Administration on promoting the large-scale development of photothermal power generation", photothermal power generation is expected to start new 3GW every year during the 14th five-year Plan period and usher in new opportunities for development. Photothermal glass is the core raw material of photothermal power generation system, which requires high transmittance of ultra-white glass and high production barriers. The company is the second wholesale supplier of photothermal glass in the world, with full production capacity of 2GW photothermal glass. The company's photothermal glass products have been recognized by the international market with excellent performance indicators. In the future, with the opening of the photothermal power generation market, it is expected to seize the incremental market share by virtue of the first-mover advantage.
Photovoltaic glass business: supply and demand is expected to improve marginally, and the cost competitiveness under capacity expansion is expected to gradually appear.
On the demand side, the downward cost of the photovoltaic industry chain after the rapid decline in silicon prices will further stimulate the release of more extensive terminal installation demand and yield profits for downstream links. We expect photovoltaic glass demand to continue to improve. From the supply side, the profitability of the photovoltaic glass industry remains at the bottom, superimposed energy consumption indicators and hearings and other production expansion policy restrictions, the marginal capacity growth has slowed down, the future new capacity will also be concentrated in the head enterprises; from the profit side, the optimization of supply and demand stack cost pressure is alleviated, photovoltaic glass profits are expected to continue to repair. The company transformed the photovoltaic glass industry earlier and has rich industrial experience. The photovoltaic glass business has the advantages of technology and natural gas pipeline transportation cost, and the gross profit margin is in the second echelon leading position. With the future production capacity expansion and the acquisition of supporting placer resources, the company's cost competitiveness is expected to gradually show. At the same time, the long order signed with the head component enterprises will also help to lock in the growth of the company's future performance.
Medicinal glass business: the policy-driven market is expected to accelerate capacity expansion, and there is a broad space for domestic alternatives. Medium borosilicate pharmaceutical glass is a kind of medicinal packaging material with better properties. Compared with low borosilicate pharmaceutical glass, it has significant advantages in chemical stability, mechanical strength, impact resistance and so on. The generic drug consistency evaluation policy promotes the domestic neutral borosilicate glass substitution process; under the related review system, we expect that the incremental market share will be concentrated to the head enterprises.
In addition, there is a high barrier in the production of medium borosilicate glass tube, and the instability of product production affects the market recognition of domestic medium borosilicate medicinal glass tube. At present, it basically depends on import. Under the self-controllable goal of our country, there is a broad market space for domestic substitution. In April 2023, the company's first production line of medium borosilicate glass tube with an annual output of 5000 tons has been ignited and put into production. In the future, under the integration of production capacity and the extension of the industrial chain, medicinal glass is expected to create a new growth point of the company.
Risk factors: downstream demand is lower than expected; industry competition is increasing day by day; production costs are rising sharply; company capacity growth is not as expected; industry capacity policy changes beyond expectations and other risks.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: Ancai Hi-Tech is a leading enterprise of the old glass shell, and the parent company can transform the new energy glass under the strategic transformation. The company's photovoltaic glass has the advantage of its own natural gas pipeline transportation cost + quality rate, and the company is the second company in the world to supply photothermal glass in bulk. Medium borosilicate medicinal glass tube products have been officially released. In the short term, the profit of photovoltaic glass is expected to pick up at the bottom under the optimization of supply and demand and the relief of cost pressure, the competitive advantage brought by the company's natural gas pipeline transportation + technology is expected to continue, and the cost competitiveness is expected to appear gradually under capacity expansion; in the medium to long term, with the accelerated release of downstream demand, photothermal glass and medicinal glass are expected to create new growth points of the company.
We forecast that the homing net profit of the company from 2023 to 2025 will be 2.35 million RMB 352pm, corresponding to the EPS forecast of 0.22pm 0.32pm 0.46 yuan. With reference to the comparable company valuation and the company's growth, we give the company a target market capitalization of 7 billion yuan and a target price of 6.6 yuan for the first time, giving a "buy" rating.