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北摩高科(002985):民航业务增速显著 持续推进产能建设

North Motor Hi-Tech (002985): The civil aviation business is growing at a significant rate and continues to promote production capacity construction

國聯證券 ·  Jul 31, 2023 00:00

Events:

On August 1, 2023, the company released its semi-annual report of 2023. In the first half of 2023, the company achieved revenue of 623 million yuan, down 3.06% from the same period last year; realized net profit of 249 million yuan, an increase of 18.22% over the same period last year; and deducted 246 million yuan of non-return net profit, an increase of 16.99% over the same period last year.

With the rapid growth of civil aviation business and phased adjustment of testing and testing business in the first half of 2023, the revenue of the company's brake control system and wheel business reached 354 million yuan, an increase of 0.09% over the same period last year; the revenue of brake disc (auxiliary) business reached 66 million yuan, an increase of 154.01% over the same period last year, mainly due to the improvement of the company's civil aviation business penetration and good market expansion. The revenue of the testing and testing business was 195 million yuan, down 24.62% from the same period last year, mainly due to the phased adjustment of the downstream plan of the subsidiary Jinghanyu and the changes in the market climate of the electronic components testing industry. The company has actively developed the application of brake discs in the civil aviation market and achieved remarkable results. It is expected that the company's civil aviation brake disc (deputy) business will continue to grow.

Actively promote the production capacity construction of aviation products, in response to the demand in the second half of the 14th five-year Plan, companies actively promote the capacity building of brake discs, wheels and landing gear landing systems to cope with the demand in the second half of the 14th five-year Plan. Up to now, the "aircraft wheel product capacity expansion project" has raised 40.59% of the funds, the "aircraft landing system technology R & D center construction project" is in a state of equipment waiting for acceptance, and the two investment projects are expected to be completed by the end of the year. The company's landing gear business is expected to become an important part of the business.

Earnings forecast, valuation and rating

Taking into account the obvious growth rate of the company's civilian product business and the new adjustment of the testing and testing business in the downstream stage, we estimate that the company's operating income in 2023-2025 will be 1.247 billion yuan (1.429 billion yuan in 23-24), and 25.02%, 30.48% and 24.50% respectively over the same period last year. The net profit of homing is 462, 606, 000. the corresponding growth rates are 47.15%, 31.22%, 5.77 and 1.93 yuan per share, respectively, and the 3-year CAGR is 26.88%. It is assumed that the development of the company's civil products business is smooth, and the progress of the investment project is in line with expectations. In view of the fact that the company is the core supplier of civil and military aviation brake systems, with reference to the comparable company's valuation, we give the company 26 times PE in 2024, with a target price of 47.49 yuan, downgraded to "overweight" rating.

Risk hint: the schedule of the fund-raising project is not as good as expected, and the risk of fluctuation of military orders

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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