East China dangerous goods supply chain leader, rapid replication of business model brings high growth Yongtai Yun was established in 2002, after 21 years of development, East China dangerous goods supply chain leader. Centering on the scarce dangerous goods warehouse resources in major port cities and chemical parks, the company provides integrated supply chain services such as warehousing, transportation, marketing and so on for domestic and foreign chemical enterprises. In 2022, the company went public with capital support, its business model was rapidly replicated while deepening, and the company entered a golden period of rapid income growth and income structure optimization. 2018-2022, the company's revenue CAGR45.71%, returns to the parent net profit CAGR53.96%,2020-2022 average ROE22.16%.

Demand: 790 billion yuan of space continues to expand, market stratification "consumption upgrading"

Dangerous goods logistics is a branch of traditional industrial logistics. According to our estimation, its 3PL market is about 790 billion yuan in 2022. At the same time, the connotation of demand is constantly expanding. In addition to the traditional fields such as crude oil and chemical industry, the market demand for new materials and new energy is also emerging. 2015 is the starting point of industry market stratification, the emergence of major safety accidents has led to a significant increase in the intensity of safety supervision in the industry, upstream and downstream, demand has been accelerated under the background of strong supervision, and demand for compliance and integrated "consumption upgrading" has appeared. the trend of market stratification is obviously accelerated.

Supply: triple barriers to qualification, resources and operation, growth space and pricing power, industry has triple moat: qualification is the first moat in the industry, multi-sector joint HSE supervision system with Chinese characteristics isolates most competitors; regional monopoly of dangerous goods warehouse resources is the second moat, the amount of core customs and park warehouse resources determines the growth space of enterprises. Safe, professional and efficient operation constitutes the third moat in the industry. Risk-sensitive state-owned enterprises and private enterprises with immature security systems are not willing to expand. Only those enterprises that can balance safe, professional and efficient operations have a chance to stand out. At present, the industry structure is very scattered, with the top 100 enterprises accounting for only 7.04% of revenue from 2021 to 2022, but the trend of increasing concentration has become clear.

Growth path: integrate the core warehouse to gather flow, warehouse, transportation, generation, sales multi-channel realization of demand accelerated by the policy to shorten the window of supply integration, Yongtai Yun as the industry leader ushered in the opportunity of volume and price rise. Growth is driven by volume growth in the short and medium term. Yongtai Yun takes the scarcest warehouse in the chain as the starting point of flow integration, and its dangerous goods warehouse layout extends from East China to North China, from coastal to inland, expanding areas and expanding products. In the medium and long term, the growth is driven by price increase, and the warehouse business is diverted to land transportation, freight forwarding, distribution and other links to strengthen the liquidity, and the unit profit is expected to maintain the growth trend.

Investment advice: low valuation and high growth opportunities for growth stocks are given a "buy" rating for the first time. We expect Yongtaiyun's operating income from 2023 to 2025 to be 2.766 billion yuan, 3.752 billion yuan and 4.631 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit to return to its mother is 253 million yuan, 342 million yuan and 431 million yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE for 2023-2025 is 16.80,12.45,9.87 times respectively. In view of the company's good management and steady improvement in profitability, it was given a "buy" rating for the first time.

Risk hints: lower-than-expected demand, production accidents, lower-than-expected integration mergers and acquisitions, measurement errors, major policy changes, overseas market risks and exchange rate risks