This report analyzes the market space, competition pattern and development trend of panel furniture machinery. The domestic decoration demand after the epidemic is concentrated and released, and the downstream is warmer; the domestic equipment is upgraded intelligently and the renewal demand is exuberant. Hongya CNC is the leader of domestic panel furniture machinery, which has significant competitive advantages in products, costs, channels and production capacity, and is expected to continue to increase its market share.

Market scale: the global market scale of panel furniture machinery fluctuates around 35 billion yuan, while the domestic market is less than 20 billion yuan. In 2019, the global woodworking machinery market is 4.1 billion euros, panel furniture equipment accounts for about 90%, and the global panel furniture equipment market is expected to be about 35 billion yuan. The domestic market is about 18 billion yuan in 2022.

Competition pattern: the global market is dominated by German and Italian enterprises with a high degree of concentration. The domestic market pattern is scattered and the degree of concentration is low. Germany and Italy have industrial advantages in woodworking and furniture industry, with long development time and leading technology, so they occupy a leading position in the field of global furniture machinery. At present, Homag (Germany), Bias (Italy), SCM (Italy) and IMA Group (Germany) have a combined global market share of 58%. In recent years, domestic Hongya CNC and Nanxing continue to make efforts in the middle and high-end market, and with high performance-to-price ratio, they also occupy a certain share in the international market, with a market share of 7% and 5% respectively.

Domestic panel furniture machinery is undergoing flexible and digital technological changes, the survival of the fittest in the industry is intensified, and the degree of concentration will be enhanced. On the demand side, with the establishment of the flexible and digital trend of domestic furniture machinery, customer demand is gradually changing to the middle and high end, pursuing more automatic and efficient equipment; on the supply side, domestic head enterprises continue to improve the technological level, narrow the gap with imported equipment, and provide cost-effective local high-quality products to meet the changes of downstream customer needs. The low-end enterprises that lack independent R & D and technological innovation capabilities and product homogenization will be eliminated, and the industry concentration is expected to continue to improve, and the head enterprises will benefit most.

New demand: the concentrated release of decoration demand after the epidemic, the improvement of the profits of furniture enterprises, supporting the growth of capital expenditure.

After the adjustment of epidemic prevention policy, the home decoration market gradually returned to normal. Due to the release of decoration demand delayed by the epidemic, the decline in the output value growth rate of the furniture industry continued to decrease in the first half of the year. At the same time, the loss situation of furniture enterprises improved, and the cumulative growth rate of total losses in May dropped to 0.2% compared with the same period last year, indicating that furniture enterprises have improved cash flow and have the ability to increase capital expenditure and drive the growth of equipment demand. Recently, the policy side has introduced real estate optimization measures one after another, and the pessimistic expectation of the policy is expected to be reversed, which is good for the custom furniture industry which belongs to the post-cycle of real estate.

Update requirements: automatic upgrading of equipment, entering the peak period of renewal. The service life of domestic panel furniture equipment is generally 5 to 8 years, while that of imported equipment is about 8 to 10 years. From 2016 to 2017, the prosperity of the furniture industry continued to rise, the demand for custom furniture broke out, a large number of enterprises expanded production during this period, and the leading enterprises of customized furniture were also listed to expand production in 2017. as a result, the growth rate of industrial added value of the furniture manufacturing industry increased significantly. A large number of new equipment added in the last round of production expansion entered the renewal peak in the past two years. In addition, furniture machinery has made great breakthroughs in performance and efficiency. Products are constantly upgraded and iterated to enhance the level of intelligence, and the updated equipment is more cost-effective at this time. So there is a strong demand for updates this year.

Hongya CNC is the leader of domestic panel furniture machinery, which has significant competitive advantages in products, costs, channels and production capacity, and is expected to continue to increase its market share. Through self-research and M & A, the company absorbs the international advanced technology of Germany and Italy, realizes the localization of products such as five-axis machining center and high-speed wooden door production line, speeds up the upgrading pace of numerical control, flexibility and intelligence, and continues to enrich the product category. Since listing, the company has given full play to its ability of resource integration and extension M & A, and formed the industrial chain collaborative strategic planning of core components, furniture manufacturing equipment automation solutions and industrial robot system integration. At present, the company has achieved 100% independent control of core components, which can significantly reduce costs and enhance product competitiveness.

The company has more than 100 dealers around the world, with perfect channel layout and increased share of overseas revenue. In recent years, the company has raised funds to expand its production capacity, providing capacity support for increased market share and globalization.

Give a "highly recommended" investment rating. The company's products are in the lead and have a strong cost-effective advantage. In the downstream demand warming, update the strong demand of the industry trend, the company's global and domestic market share is expected to continue to increase. We estimate that the company's revenue from 2023 to 2025 will be 25.66 RMB 30.05 / 3.475 billion, an increase of 21%, 17%, 16%, and net profit of 531, 648, 000, 746 million, respectively, an increase of 17%, 22%, 15%, and the corresponding PE is 14-11-10 times, given a "highly recommended" rating.

Risk tips: the risk of changes in domestic and foreign markets, technology research and development is not as expected, capacity construction is not as expected, and the real estate market fluctuates greatly.