The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Securities released a research report stating that CITIC Securities first gave CITIC Anrico (03899) a “buy” rating, considering that the natural gas industry chain business is expected to achieve steady growth, the clean energy business continues to explore new markets and the potential growth of the hydrogen energy business. The 2023-25 EPS forecast is HK$0.71/0.83/1.05, respectively, with a target price of HK$11. In recent years, following a diverse path of innovation and development, the company has gradually entered the market for small and medium-sized liquefied gas carriers and clean fuel vessels, laying out the entire hydrogen energy supply industry chain. In the future, in the “double carbon” process, the driving force for the company's growth is clear, which is expected to smooth out future fluctuations in traditional businesses.
The main views of CITIC Securities are as follows:
Based on traditional business, diversified innovation and development.
Based on the manufacturing and operation of energy equipment such as natural gas, the company gradually extends the industrial chain and product application scenarios. Currently, it has developed into a diversified development pattern where three major sectors go hand in hand, including clean energy equipment manufacturing, tank equipment such as chemical environment, and liquid food equipment manufacturing and engineering. In recent years, the company's forward-looking layout has continuously expanded hydrogen energy industry chain products, and actively developed green energy storage and transportation equipment such as methanol and liquid ammonia. Under the goal of “double carbon”, the company's business continues to innovate and evolve to strengthen its leading edge in the industry.
The clean energy business is maintaining its integrity, and the business boundaries are constantly expanding.
The company's layout in the clean energy sector spans “water and land.” In the “onshore” business, the company lays out key equipment manufacturing and engineering service businesses around the entire natural gas industry chain, and can provide one-stop system solutions. The company's LNG gas cylinder business is expected to resume rapid growth from 2023 to 2025, and natural gas storage tank equipment is expected to continue to expand. In the “offshore” business, the company is the market leader in the small and medium-sized liquefied gas carrier segment. The product chain covers full-pressure and semi-cold half-pressure carriers and LNG filling vessels that can carry various types of liquefied gas. With global LNG shipping demand and the increase in shipbuilding orders in the past two years, related ship and equipment revenue is expected to grow over the long term. At the same time, the company continues to expand its “water-based” business boundaries, in line with the green trend of global shipping. It will enter the clean-fuel container ship market in 2023. The “oil to gasoline” project for domestic inland waterway vessels, which it has actively participated in in the past three years, has also become a new source of business growth. The bank expects revenue growth in the company's clean energy business (excluding hydrogen energy) from 2023 to 2025 at 10%/7%/7%, respectively.
The world leader in chemical tank container manufacturing, and the world leader in liquid food engineering equipment.
The company's chemical environment division business corresponds to the manufacture of chemical tanks. The company's market share in 2021 was 55% (disclosed in the CIMC Environmental Technology prospectus). The chemical tank industry is characterized by specialization and high barriers. The compound annual growth rate of global chemical tank production in the past 5 years was 6.95%. As a global leader, the company can enjoy the steady growth rate of the industry. It is estimated that the business revenue in 2025 may be close to 7 billion yuan. In the liquid food engineering sector, the company is one of the few suppliers in the world with turnkey capabilities for complete plants. Most of the revenue from this business currently comes from the beer industry, and it has also been actively expanding orders in the pharmaceutical engineering field in the past two years. It is expected that revenue from both major segments of the company will maintain steady growth in the future.
The hydrogen energy business is expected to create the company's second growth curve.
With its advantages in fields such as natural gas storage and transportation equipment, the company has forwardly laid out the hydrogen energy industry chain and has been deeply involved for many years. The company's hydrogen energy business is centered on storage and transportation, and has formed the layout of the entire “manufacturing, storage, transportation and addition” industry chain. Currently, the main products are hydrogen storage tank groups for hydrogen refueling stations, hydrogen transport pipe bundles, and hydrogen storage tanks. In the future, vehicle-mounted IV hydrogen storage cylinders and electrolyzer equipment are expected to become the company's potential products. With the gradual development of domestic hydrogen energy application scenarios and the promotion of green hydrogen projects, the bank expects the company's hydrogen energy product sales revenue to maintain a high growth trend in the next three years. It is estimated that in 2023-2025, the hydrogen energy sector revenue will be 729/14.16/2,616 billion yuan respectively, up 66%/94%/85% respectively over the previous year. The hydrogen energy sector is expected to become the company's second growth curve.
Risk Factors:Demand for traditional natural gas equipment fluctuates; promotion of hydrogen energy-related products falls short of expectations; risk of rising raw material costs; risk of technology iteration; risk of exchange profit and loss; risk of increased market competition; risk of increased market competition; risk of demand falling short of expectations in the chemical and liquid food industries.