1H23 independent conventional product revenue growth is steady, maintaining "buy" rating
The company's 1H23 realized income of 1.381 billion yuan (yoy-22.5%) and net profit of 175 million yuan (yoy-56.9%), mainly because the domestic market demand for COVID-19 testing products of 1H23 significantly reduced the provision for impairment of assets related to the overlay company's inventory. The company's independent product conventional reagent 1H23 into the yoy+12.9%, core main business development continues to improve. Taking into account the impact of reagent collection on business income, assembly lines and other high-end new products commercial promotion investment enhancement superimposed short-term COVID-19 testing products inventory provision for asset impairment increased, we adjusted 23-25 EPS to 0.84 pounds 1.14 pounds 1.38 yuan (the previous value 0.95 pounds 1.23 pounds 1.55 yuan). Based on the 23-year performance (we predict that the proportion of net profit of self-production / agency sector will be 89% / 11% respectively), using SOTP method, considering that the volume of luminous income is slightly lower than that of our main competitors, we give self-produced 23-year 23x PE (comparable company Wind consensus expected average 24x), agency 15x PE (comparable company Wind consensus expected average 15x), and maintain the "buy" rating corresponding to the target price of 18.51 yuan (the previous value is 20.86 yuan).
Sales promotion activities continue to strengthen, still attach importance to research and development
The company's 1H23 gross profit margin is 53.4% (yoy-1.0pct), which we speculate is mainly due to changes in the product sales structure.
The company's 1H23 sales / management / R & D expense rates are 20.7%, 5.0%, 9.3%, respectively, and yoy+5.0/+1.4/+3.5pct, respectively. Under the background of domestic epidemic prevention and control optimization, the company's promotional activities gradually resume, but still attach importance to research and development.
Chemiluminescence: steady growth in income, optimistic that the increase in installed capacity will lead to the acceleration of reagent sales.
We speculate that 1H23's chemiluminescent reagent revenue has increased by more than 15% compared with the same period last year, and about 500 new chemiluminescent instruments have been installed; we expect the company to achieve an installed capacity of more than 1000 units for the whole year, and the installed capacity of the instruments will be released steadily. Looking forward to the whole year of 23, considering the continuous improvement of market recognition of i3000 (300 test / hour) and i1000 (180 test / hour), we are optimistic that the company's chemiluminescence business revenue will grow by 25-30% in 23 years compared with the same period last year, speeding up the import substitution process.
Other business: the income of temporary inspection business is growing rapidly, and the agency business is further weakened.
1) Biochemistry: we speculate that 1H23 revenue will increase by about 5% compared with the same period last year, considering that epidemic prevention and control has stabilized and improved, superimposed company's biochemical positioning is high-end and the traceability of volume value is outstanding, we are optimistic that plate income in 23 years will increase slightly compared with the same period last year; 2) temporary inspection: we speculate that 1H23 revenue will increase by about 40% year on year, considering the rapid expansion of the company's high-end blood cell products, we are optimistic that plate income will increase by 40-50% in 23 years. 3) Agency: the income of 1H23 agent is 496 million yuan (yoy-20.8%), the company continues to weaken the investment of agency business, and the proportion of income and profit decreases gradually.
Risk tips: product sales are not up to expectations, research and development progress is lower than expected, reagent bidding price reduction.