The company's 2023H1 accumulated a total of 7.52 billion yuan in newly signed contracts, with a 5.4% increase of 4.08 billion yuan for 2023Q2 contracts, and a 1.8% increase in sales of chemical fiber compared with the previous month. Demand is now improving. Considering the steady increase in the company's orders, there is room for improvement in the chemical fiber business during the year, and the company's holding rating is maintained.
Support the main points of rating
Orders have increased steadily and there are plenty of orders on hand. 2023H1 accumulated 7.52 billion yuan in newly signed contracts, which increased 5.4% to 4.08 billion yuan in newly signed contracts, or 1.8% to 1.8%. A total of 65 unsigned orders have been won, totaling 5.44 billion yuan.
The demand for chemical fiber has improved, and there is room for improvement within the year. 2023Q2's chemical fiber sales reached 119000 tons, up 18.4 percent, 3.8 percent from the previous month, and the price per ton was 6734.4 yuan, up 3.4 percent from the previous month, up 220.2 yuan. By the end of June 2023, the total amount of retail sales of social consumption reached 22.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.2%. The impact of the epidemic subsided, and with the sustained recovery of consumption, the downstream economy recovered, and the chemical fiber business may be repaired during the year, leaving room for improvement.
Traditional space steel industry leader, airport, high-speed rail investment to support order growth. Airport terminals, high-speed railway stations usually use long-span space steel structure, the company is the traditional space steel industry leader, with a certain brand power. According to the "14th five-year Plan" issued by the Civil Aviation Administration in January 2022 and the "14th five-year Plan" issued by the State Council, the relevant infrastructure investment will remain strong during the 14th five-year Plan period, and investment in traditional advantageous projects such as airport terminals and high-speed rail stations is expected to support the company's order growth.
With the promotion of BIPV application, orders are expected to be released this year. The company cooperates with day care, Foster, Hangzhou long Yan and other photovoltaic enterprises to continuously explore the development and use of flexible component application scenarios. The price of components continued to decline during the year, and the performance-to-price ratio may prompt the owners to speed up the construction and installation. This year, the distributed photovoltaic business is expected to usher in the release of orders and increase the company's profits.
Valuation
Considering the steady increase in the company's orders and the room for improvement in the chemical fiber business during the year, the photovoltaic business is expected to increase profits and maintain the profit forecast. The company's 2023-2025 income is expected to be 132.0 yuan, 147.0 yuan and 16.22 billion yuan respectively, the return net profit is 5.7,6.1 yuan and 680 million yuan respectively, and the EPS is 0.49,0.53,0.58 yuan respectively. Maintain the company's overweight rating.
Main risks faced by rating
Raw material prices fluctuated sharply, EPC projects did not advance as expected, and downstream demand recovery was not as expected.