Items:
On July 26, 2023, the company announced the implementation announcement of the annual distribution of rights and interests in 2022. This profit distribution is based on 864122521 shares of the company's total share capital before the implementation of the plan, with a cash dividend of 0.119 yuan per share (including tax), with a total cash dividend of about 103 million yuan.
Comments:
The company will pay a dividend of 103 million yuan in 2022, which will be distributed on August 4, 2023. The company achieved a net profit of about 343 million yuan in 2022, and the total cash dividend in this profit distribution was about 103 million yuan. The cash dividend accounted for 30% of the net profit, which was basically the same as that in 2021, and the dividend was stable.
Some local state-owned enterprises occupy a relatively high proportion of land in the suburbs of the city, while Tiandi Source in the deep ploughing city of Xi'an only focuses on the fundamentals and high-tech zones with a better real estate market. 1) as the only listed housing enterprise under the management committee of Xi'an High-tech Zone, the company has acquired 5 plots in the second half of 2021, 4 of which are located in Xi'an High-tech Zone. 2) by the end of 2022, the company's land reserve was about 3.29 million square meters, of which Xi'an land storage accounted for 47%, and high-tech zones accounted for 92% of Xi'an land storage. 3) Xi'an High-tech Zone has a high exchange rate of industry and population. In 2022, GDP accounts for 27% of the whole city. It has become the driving engine of Xi'an economy, nurturing two hundred billion output value industries of electronic information and automobile, and has more than 1.3 million permanent residents and employees. The real estate market of Xi'an High-tech Zone is healthy. In 2022, the residential transaction area of the High-tech Zone is 1.46 million square meters, down only 7% from the same period last year. The average transaction price is 23500 yuan / ping, ranking firmly in the first echelon of Xi'an.
With the market perception of the local state-owned enterprises trading ability is relatively weak, generally different from word-of-mouth, the company's "government" and "square" products enjoy high brand awareness, rich experience in trading, and have strong competitiveness compared with the head housing enterprises. 1) the company acquired the land in the Central Innovation Zone of Xi'an High-tech Zone at the end of June 2022, with a floor price of about 13000 / ping. Yongan Washington, a "government department" product, opened for the first time in May 2023 and launched 258 houses with an average price of about 26000 / ping. 2) compared with the surrounding Zhonghai Xueshi Lane, which opened in June, the Yongan Washington education package is not clear, but the company's trading ideas are clear, differentiating and positioning competitive products, increasing the proportion of large areas of households, and paying more attention to obtaining and improving customers rather than the rigid needs of the school district.
The company has sufficient unsold value in Xi'an, Xianyang and Suzhou, supporting the company to exceed its 2023 sales target. It is expected that the future comprehensive gross profit margin will be more than 20%, with strong stability. 1) in terms of sales, the unsold value of the company's key sales items in 2023 is about 26.8 billion yuan, of which the unsold value of the deep farming city of Xi'an, Suzhou and Xianyang is about 18.2 billion yuan. In 2023, the company is expected to exceed the sales target of 10.5 billion. 2) in terms of settlement, we estimate that the future comprehensive gross profit margin will still be above 20%. Even if growth is not taken into account, the scale of full-caliber sales will be stable at just over 10 billion in the future.
Investment suggestion: the company holds the core high-tech zone market in Xi'an, and has accumulated a good reputation in Xi'an, strong trading ability, and has a strong sustainable advantage in both the land end and the brand end. Even without considering growth, the company in Xi'an, Xianyang, Suzhou market can ensure a good stability of the company, a reasonable valuation of about 4.8 billion yuan.
We estimate that from 2023 to 2025, the company's EPS will be 0.53,0.59,0.64 yuan respectively, and the current price corresponding to PE will be 9.2,8.4,7.7 respectively, maintaining the target price of 5.57 yuan and maintaining the company's "recommended" rating.
Risk Tip: the industry continues to shrink the table unilaterally, and the market goes down faster than expected.