再融资风险忧虑有望缓解。公司当前股价对应7 倍2024e EV/EBITDA，我们认为公司目前估值较低，主要由于市场担心公司再融资风险，及博彩业务恢复慢于预期。截至1H23，公司未赎回优先票据（将于2024 年7 月6 日到期）总额达4.72 亿美元，现金及银行结余总额为2.61 亿美元。我们预计，公司在债券赎回之前将控制其2H23E 及1H24E 的资本开支。鉴于公司2Q23 EBITDA 实现8,260 万美元，我们认为，到2024 年7 月，公司账上现金及银行结余的额度有望能够完全覆盖其未偿还优先票据额度，即使无法完全偿还，其差值水平也可能处于较低水平，因此有望缓解市场对其再融资风险的担忧。1H23 performance is in line with our expectations
Gold World Holdings announced 1H23 results on July 19: total revenue recorded US $263 million, up 8% from the same period last year, up 21% from the previous year and returning to 30% of the 1H19 level, of which total gaming revenue reached US $252 million (up 6% from the same period last year, up 21% from the previous year, and returning to 29% of the 1H19 level), and non-gaming revenue was US $10.72 million. EBITDA recorded $143 million (up 10 per cent from a year earlier to 59 per cent of 1H19), in line with our expectations. We attribute the company's performance to the slower-than-expected recovery of the company's overall business, but benefited from an increase in the revenue share of the higher-margin midfield business, which pushed up the company's overall EBITDA margin.
Trend of development
Refinancing risk concerns are expected to ease. The company's current share price corresponds to 7 times 2024e EV/EBITDA, and we believe that the company's current valuation is low, mainly due to market concerns about the company's refinancing risk and the slower-than-expected recovery of the gaming business. As of 1H23, the company's outstanding senior notes (due on July 6, 2024) totaled $472 million and cash and bank balances totaled $261 million. We expect the company to control capital expenditure on its 2H23E and 1H24E prior to bond redemptions. Given that the company's 2Q23 EBITDA reached $82.6 million, we believe that by July 2024, the amount of cash and bank balances on the company's books is expected to fully cover its outstanding preferred paper line, and even if it is not fully repaid, the margin may be low, so it is expected to ease market concerns about its refinancing risk.
Waiting for the recovery of Chinese tourists to Cambodia. Although the number of Chinese tourists to Cambodia from April to May 2023 only recovered to 23% of that in the same period of 2019, the average daily transcoding of the company's 2Q23 midfield business and high-end VIP (direct VIP) business still recovered to 84% and 98% of their 2019 levels, respectively. We believe that this is mainly due to the high proportion of Chinese tourists to Cambodia who have more spending power and stay longer, as well as the resilient demand of high-end gaming customers. But the overall recovery is still limited by the frequency of Chinese flights to Cambodia. Considering that the backlog of Chinese outbound travel demand is expected to gradually release and maintain resilience, we expect that direct flights between China and Cambodia may double by the end of this year, gradually returning to 200 per week (currently 104 per week and about 400 per week before the epidemic).
Profit forecast and valuation
Considering that the number of Chinese tourists to Cambodia has only returned to its level of about 20 per cent in the same period in 2019, we have lowered our 2023 and 2024 EBITDA forecasts by 29 per cent and 18 per cent to US $298 million and US $406 million, respectively. The current share price corresponds to 7 times the 2024 EV/EBITDA. We maintained our outperform industry rating and lowered our target price by 15% to HK $7.50, corresponding to 11 times 2024 EV/EBITDA, which is 59% upside from the current share price.
Risk
Regional competition intensified; the recovery of tourists to Cambodia was slower than expected.
