The revenue end of 1H23 is outstanding, with both TAVR and nerve intervention products expanding.
Peijia Medical announced its 1H23 performance forecast, achieving revenue of 2.2-230 million yuan, an increase of 85.2-93.6% over the same period last year, mainly due to the outstanding performance of the two sectors: 1) TAVR accelerated commercialization, and the market share continued to rise (the company's 1H23 planting volume of 1200 + units, which has exceeded the annual planting capacity of 22 years). 2) the continuous volume of nerve intervention products, superimposed on the new ischemic products listed last year, have entered the commercial harvest period. Looking forward to the year of 2H23, we expect the volume of TAVR surgery to continue to repair + 4Q peak season to promote please climb another high-rise building, and is optimistic that Peijia will hit 22-25% of the industry market share with excellent second-generation products. Superimposed nerve intervention plate products continue to sell, we predict that the company's 23-25 revenue of 4.8pm 7.9cm 1.46 billion. Using the DCF valuation method (assuming a WACC of 10.2% with a sustainable growth rate of 2.0%), we maintain the Peijia target price of HK $14.86 and the "buy" rating.
TAVR plate: the planting volume reaches a new high again, and is optimistic about the continuous optimization of profitability.
The company has implanted more than 1200 1H23 TAVR products (vs1H22 470 +), and we estimate that the revenue of the 1H23 sector exceeds 100%yoy. Looking forward to 23 years, we are optimistic about the continued high income growth in this sector: 1) at the industry level, we are optimistic about selective surgical repair + regional health insurance coverage to stimulate industry penetration, and the year-on-year growth rate of industry surgery is expected to exceed 50%. 2) at the company level, we are optimistic about the impact of Peijia's annual market share of 22-25%, considering the company: a) the combination of direct sales and distribution mode to drive the rapid admission of products to hospital. B) the second generation TAVR has both radial support and recyclable performance, and has superior product power; c) supply chain / production / commercialization costs are continuously optimized and operating efficiency continues to improve. In addition, the company is progressing smoothly in the research and development of the pipeline: 1) multicenter clinical registration at the third generation TAVR; 2) the FIM phase at the shock wave product TaurusWave; 3) animal trials at the polymer valve TaurusApex; and 4) 2 commercial implants of Trilogy 1H23 in Hong Kong, which we expect to obtain evidence in the United States / China respectively in 24 months and 25 years.
Neural intervention: in the volume of ischemic new products, the income structure is gradually diversified.
1H23 Neurointervention plate products continue to volume, we estimate that this sector 1H23 revenue yoy nearly 70% (of which, bleeding / ischemia / pathway products accounted for 3:4:3). We conservatively forecast that the income of this sector will reach 50% yoy in 23 years, mainly because: 1) hemorrhagic products are optimistic about the import substitution of spring coils after harvest, and the income growth rate remains steady; 2) ischemic products are expected to become the main driving force of the plate driven by the continuous release of the four new products listed in 22 years; 3) the next generation of microguide wire of vascular access products has been approved to be listed, and it is optimistic that it will be officially released after the hospital period.
TMV/TTV: quickly join the R & D pipeline and be optimistic about its listing after 2024.
We estimate that the Peijia II / tricuspid valve pipeline is expected to impact sales of nearly 2 billion yuan in 2030, driven by:
1) multicenter clinical registration of HighLife (transatrial septal mitral valve replacement), 2) domestic registered clinic of GeminiOne (mitral marginal repair), which was quickly admitted to the group because of good clinical feedback recently; 3) FIM clinical of MonarQ (tricuspid valve replacement); 4) animal experiment of Sutra.
Risk tips: slow improvement of TAVR market penetration, R & D-related risks, market liquidity risk.