This report is read as follows:
2Q23 performance month-on-month recovery, the industry cycle low has passed, the company ushered in a performance inflection point. In the long run, the company has profoundly benefited from the explosive growth of CIS brought about by the upgrading of the self-driving level of smart cars, and its performance is expected to maintain high growth.
Main points of investment:
Maintain the "overweight" rating and maintain the target price of 37.94 yuan. The company is the world leader in CIS chip packaging, profoundly benefiting from the explosive growth in the field of automotive CIS, maintaining EPS0.47, 0.66,0.89 yuan in 2023-2025. Considering the high growth of the company's auto business, it was given 57.48 times PE in 2024, maintaining the target price of 37.94 yuan and maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Downstream consumer electronics demand is depressed, and the company's first-half results are under pressure. In 23, H1 company is expected to achieve a net profit of 70-80 million yuan, which is-58.11%-63.35% compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the temporary shortage of downstream consumer electronics demand. In 23, Q2 is expected to achieve a net profit of 0.39-49 million yuan, with a month-on-month ratio of + 27.6% to + 60.16%. The profit inflection point has arrived.
The cycle of the semiconductor industry has hit bottom, and downstream demand is expected to pick up gradually. According to SIA data, sales in the global semiconductor industry rose slightly for the third month in a row, and the industry cycle bottomed out. In addition, AI led the outbreak of HBM demand, and the growth rate of TSV segments was better than that of the industry. The consumer electronics industry is currently fully destocked, superimposed in the second half of the year for the traditional peak season of consumer electronics, the company is expected to benefit from the recovery of downstream demand and release performance flexibility.
The company actively lays out the field of automotive CIS, and the closed test production line of CIS at the specification level builds a moat for advanced packaging. According to ICV TANK data, the market size of automotive CIS will reach 7.4 billion US dollars in 2027, and the automobile market will become the main growth driver of CIS. The company actively distributes the field of automotive electronics, with the world's first wafer-level silicon through-hole packaging production line for 12-inch sensors, and the continuous increase in the production scale of CIS products, which is expected to continue to benefit from the high growth of automotive CIS demand.
Risk hint. The recovery of the industry is not as expected; autopilot penetration is not as expected.