公司资产配置优质均衡。通过集装箱船、散货船、油轮、气船、特种船等不同船型之间的均衡配置，利用不同船型周期波动的不同，实现内部风险对冲。截至2022 年年末，集团船舶组合规模为158 艘，其中起租运营129 艘，29 艘正在建造，运营船舶平均船龄约3.2 年。按合同金额计，海上清洁能源装备、集装箱船、液货船、散货船、特种船分别占比40.5%、19.8%、15.4%、13.8%、10.5%，Incident: The company released its mid-term earnings forecast for 2023. It is anticipated that the comprehensive profit attributable to company equity holders for the six months ending June 30, 2023 will increase by approximately 18% to 21% over the same period in 2022.
Comment:
The company's “fixed income+flexible income structured management strategy helps get through the cycle. The fixed income business mainly includes financial leases and long-term fixed leases. The benefits of this type of business are locked in and are not directly affected by fluctuations in the shipping market. The company mainly plays the role of a credit provider. This type of business has strong financial attributes, and the main risk exposure is lessee credit risk. Flexible income business means that the company places orders shipbuilding at a low level in the market through independent or joint investment, and invests in short-term and spot market operations after the ship is delivered and leased. Therefore, the income from this type of business is flexible. It is influenced by the spot shipping market, so it has strong shipping attributes. The company mainly plays the role of an independent shipowner, benefiting from rental income and asset value-added. In order to control overall risk, the company's fixed income assets currently account for more than 80% of its total operating assets. In 2022, the Group executed 129 vessel leasing contracts, including 68 financial leasing contracts and 61 operating leasing contracts. Out of these 129 ongoing tenancy contracts, the average remaining tenancy period for leases over one year is approximately 7.3 years.
The company's asset allocation is high quality and balanced. Through a balanced arrangement between different ship types such as container ships, bulk carriers, tankers, air vessels, special vessels, etc., internal risk hedging is achieved by utilizing the different cycle fluctuations of different ship types. As of the end of 2022, the Group had a fleet of 158 ships, of which 129 were leased and operated, 29 were under construction, with an average operating age of about 3.2 years. In terms of contract amounts, offshore clean energy equipment, container ships, liquid cargo carriers, bulk carriers, and special vessels accounted for 40.5%, 19.8%, 15.4%, 13.8%, and 10.5%, respectively.
The company has stepped up the implementation of lean operation and cost management engineering systems. According to the characteristics of the shipping business, the company independently developed a risk quantitative assessment model for credit projects in the shipping industry, and built an informatization platform for the entire life cycle of the business to provide technological support for lean management. The company adopted various methods such as reducing non-operating assets such as cash, reducing the size of debt, adjusting loan interest calculation methods, short-term loan replacement with low interest rates, and strictly controlling the introduction of new loans to vigorously curb the excessive rise in financing costs. Comprehensive financing costs for the full year 2022 were controlled at 2.6%, an increase of only 76 basis points over 2021.
Profit prediction: For the first time, a “buy” rating was covered. It is estimated that in 2023-2025, the company will achieve operating income of HK$3.699/ 41.70/HK$4,584 billion respectively, net profit of HK$19.59,2460/HK$2,863 billion respectively, and corresponding PE of 4.39x/3.49x/3.00x respectively.
Risk warning: overseas macro risk, credit risk, interest rate risk, asset value risk
