Main points of investment
Events:
Recently, the company has completed the issuance of shares to specific targets. The total amount of funds raised is 700 million yuan. After deducting the issue price, the net amount raised is 693 million yuan, the issue price is 9.77 yuan per share, and the number of shares issued is 71.65 million shares.
Looking forward to the second half of 2023, traditional business, electronic special gas (laser mixed gas) is expected to stabilize and recover (1) traditional business: the company increases the market development efforts of food-grade customers, and the profitability is expected to improve in the second half of the year. According to Zhuochuang, the unit price of liquid carbon dioxide is 372 yuan / ton in 2022 (including 352 yuan / ton in the first half of the year) and 351 yuan / ton in the first half of 2023, which is the same as that in the same period in 2022. The average year-on-year price change is-8% in the first half of 2022 and-17% in the second half of 2022. It is expected that the price increase may expand in the second half of 2023 against a low base background.
(2) Electronic special gas: the company has obtained ASML certification and will focus on selling laser mixed gas in the second half of 2023. Global integrated circuit inventory continues to be removed, and material procurement is expected to stabilize and pick up. At the same time, the company actively develops head wafer factories at home and abroad, with the improvement of certification and customer share, electronic special gas is expected to continue to release volume.
Plans to invest in electronic special gas phase II and other three major new projects, targeted additional issuance to raise 700 million yuan to help the project land (1) traditional business: according to the announcement, the company plans to invest 2 billion yuan to expand production capacity such as carbon dioxide and hydrogen peroxide. Main projects: (a) Fujian Camet plans to invest 500 million yuan to implement 300,000 tons / year high clean food and electronic grade hydrogen peroxide project. (B) the Jieyang Camet project has a total investment of 1.5 billion yuan. Upon completion of the construction, it will achieve a mass production capacity of 300000 tons / year of high purity food grade carbon dioxide and 300,000 tons / year of industrial and electronic grade hydrogen peroxide.
(2) Phase II of Yizhang Electronic Special Gas: the company intends to invest 600 million yuan in the implementation of electronic special gas expansion. The second phase production capacity mainly includes halogen gas (hydrogen chloride, hydrogen bromide), fluorine-based mixed gas, electronic grade acetylene and so on. According to the announcement, it is estimated that after fully reaching production (the fifth year after putting into operation), the income is 680 million yuan and the net profit is 290 million yuan.
From 2023 to 2024, the payment fee of equity incentive is higher, and the higher performance target shows management confidence. The performance unlocking condition of equity incentive is that the net profit of 2022-2024 is not less than 1.8,2.5 and 350 million yuan, respectively.
According to the company announcement, the equity payment fees of restricted stocks granted for the first time and reserved are 0.74,0.69,0.40,0.18 and 7 million yuan respectively from 2023 to 2027. Among them, equity payment fees accounted for 30% and 20% of the performance assessment targets of equity incentives in 2023 and 2024, respectively, accounting for a relatively high proportion.
Profit forecast and valuation
Due to the sharp drop in the price of rare gas products, the profit forecast for the next three years has been lowered. It is estimated that the return net profit of the company from 2023 to 2025 is 1.8,2.0 and 260 million yuan respectively. After the completion of the additional issuance, the EPS of 2022 is 0.23 yuan (the total share capital is increased to 714 million shares), and the EPS from 2023 to 2025 is expected to be 0.25,0.27 and 36 million yuan respectively. The corresponding PE is 49, 44 and 33 times, respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk hint: the project production schedule is not as expected, and the electronic special gas sales are not as expected.