①消费眼科收入占比逐年提升，2022 年达54.8%。屈光业务中推广全飞秒、ICL 等中高端术式，视光业务中则推广高毛利的OK 镜，进而带动消费眼科毛利率从2018 年的47.6%提升至2022 年的51.6%。②基础眼科业务中，白内障业务贡献较高收入。老龄化趋势叠加消费升级，有望推动白内障领域中高端人工晶体需求增长。Investment logic:
North China takes the lead, radiating Jiangsu and Zhejiang. Chaoju Ophthalmology was established in Baotou, Inner Mongolia in 1988. By April 25, 2023, it operated 26 ophthalmology hospitals and 27 optometry centers. The layout of the hospital was deeply ploughed in North China and radiated in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces. In 2022, the company achieved an income of 990 million yuan (- 0.8%, year-on-year, the same below), which decreased slightly due to the overall environmental factors; the company achieved a net profit of 190 million yuan (+ 16.1%) by increasing revenue and reducing expenditure, optimizing cash management and other means. show good profitability.
High gross margin consumer ophthalmology business has a strong momentum, and basic ophthalmology services seek high-quality development.
The proportion of ① consumer ophthalmology income has increased year by year, reaching 54.8% in 2022. Medium-and high-end operations such as full femtosecond and ICL are promoted in the refractive business, while high-margin OK mirrors are promoted in the optometry business, resulting in an increase in consumer ophthalmology gross profit margin from 47.6% in 2018 to 51.6% in 2022. In the basic ophthalmology business of ②, cataract business contributes higher income. The aging trend, superimposed by the upgrading of consumption, is expected to promote the growth of demand for high-end intraocular lenses in the cataract field.
Cluster operation improves profitability, and the cluster layout has a good momentum of development. The number of hospitals in western Mongolia and its adjacent areas, eastern Mongolia and its adjacent areas, northern Jiangsu, eastern Zhejiang and northern Zhejiang is 9, 9, 2 and 4 respectively. The cluster layout is conducive to cluster operation, cost reduction and efficiency efficiency. The company's net interest rate is 18.5% in 2022, which is in the leading level in the industry. The business of ② in East Mongolia and Jiangsu and Zhejiang has developed rapidly. From 2018 to 2020, the income CAGR of West Mongolia and its adjacent regions, East Mongolia and its adjacent regions, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 10.0% 25.0% and 23.5% respectively. ③ expansion continues to empower subsequent growth. In November 2022, the company successfully acquired four hospitals in Hebei and increased the density of hospitals in the neighboring areas of eastern Mongolia. The total revenue of the above four hospitals in 2021 was 64.9 million yuan (+ 62.4%), and the total net profit was-2.1 million yuan, which was smaller than the loss of-5.37 million yuan in 2020. Zhoushan Hospital has been opened in 2023 and Chaoju Kaiming (Ningxia) Hospital has been acquired. Hospitals in Zhangjiakou and other places are expected to open in 2023.
Earnings forecasts, valuations and ratings
We predict that in 2025, the company will achieve operating income of 1.22 billion / 1.46 billion / 1.72 billion yuan, an increase of 23.4%, 19.8%, 17.7%, 234 million / 285 million / 344 million, and 24.7%, 21.7%, 20.8%, corresponding to an EPS of 0.33, 0.40, 0.49 yuan. We use the relative valuation method (price-earnings ratio method) to value the company, giving 2023 20 times PE, with a target price of HK $6.65, covering the company's "buy" rating for the first time.
Risk hint
Medical malpractice risk; policy change risk; regional operation risk; ophthalmology brain drain or insufficient risk; M & An expansion is not as expected.
