[matters]
Recently, the company issued a performance forecast for the 2023 semi-annual report: it is estimated that the net profit of returning home is about 580 million yuan, which is about 166% of the same period last year; the non-net profit is about 390.62 million yuan, which is about 43.5% of the same period last year.
[comments]
Actively seize the opportunity of industry recovery, the main business to achieve both quantity and quality. In 2023, the repressive factors in the commercial vehicle industry gradually eased, and the positive signal of warming continued to be released. According to the data of the China Automobile Association, the production / sales of 23H1 commercial vehicles in China reached 1.967 million / 1.971 million, respectively, + 16.9% and 15.8% respectively compared with the same period last year. The company seized the opportunity of industry recovery, the sales of commercial vehicles reached 303900, + 21.5% compared with the same period last year, all product lines developed in an all-round way, and the sales of medium heavy truck / light truck / bus / engine products were 63600 / 207800 / 30300 / 137800, respectively. Compared with the same period last year, they were + 9.2%, 22.6%, 48.7%, 19.2%, respectively. At the same time, the company continues to promote the whole value chain to reduce costs and increase efficiency, and the improvement of profitability continues to be realized. The company has brand advantages and scale advantages, the follow-up is expected to continue to enjoy the industry recovery dividend.
Overseas layout ushered in the harvest period, exports are expected to continue to provide performance growth momentum. The company accelerated its entry into the international market, with continuous breakthroughs in Europe, Thailand and other strategic markets. in 2022, the company's export sales reached 87700 vehicles, + 56.4% compared with the same period last year, ranking first in commercial vehicle exports for 12 consecutive years. 23H1's exports continued to be strong, with sales reaching 60600 vehicles, + 30.8% compared with the same period last year. In the future, under the multi-round co-drive of "focusing on the core + replenishing the deficiency board + improving the ecology", the company's international business strategy is expected to usher in the harvest period.
The layout of new energy goes hand in hand with the times, and the "troika" drive growth together. With the forward-looking layout of the new energy track and insisting on independent research and development of core technologies, the new energy business has achieved rapid development, with sales of 21800 vehicles in 2022, an increase of 154.8% over the same period last year and an increase of 104.9% over the same period last year. The company always insists on "winning by quality" and actively practices its internal skills. the future new energy strategy, ecological planning and layout, and Zhilan technology brand "troika" are expected to grow for a long time.
[investment advice]
In the short term, with the gradual recovery of the economy and the pick-up of logistics demand, the overall consumer demand for trucks is expected to pick up; at the same time, the company's market share in the field of light trucks and medium and heavy trucks continues to increase, and its performance is expected to resonate upward; in the medium to long term, the company's active layout of high-end and new energy products is expected to continue to bring performance growth momentum.
We maintain the forecast that the company's revenue from 2023 to 2025 will be 568.08 yuan, 694.06 yuan and 83.017 billion yuan respectively, and its net profit will be 15.62,24.69 and 3.149 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.20,0.31 and 0.39 yuan respectively, and corresponding PE of 19,12 and 10 respectively.
[risk Tip]
The recovery of commercial vehicle market is not as expected.
The cost of raw materials fell less than expected.
Sales in overseas markets fall short of expectations