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力劲科技(00558.HK)

Lijin Technology (00558.HK)

國泰君安國際 ·  Jul 11, 2023 00:00

The revenue of Lijin Technology ("the Company") in fiscal year 2023 is in line with our expectations, and the business of large die casting machines continues to grow rapidly. The company's revenue for fiscal year 2023 was HK $5.9 billion, an increase of 10.0% over the same period last year, which is basically in line with our expectations. The company recorded a net profit of HK $532 million in fiscal year 2023, down 14.9% from a year earlier, which was worse than we expected. The decline in the company's net profit in fiscal 2023 was mainly dragged down by the injection molding machine business. In fiscal year 2023, the company's injection molding machine business revenue fell 13% compared with the same period last year, and the operating profit margin fell to 0.1%. However, the company's die casting machine business performance is still outstanding, the 2023 fiscal year die casting machine business revenue of 4.4 billion Hong Kong dollars, an increase of 16.0% over the same period last year. In addition, the company's overall performance also improved significantly in the second half of fiscal year 2023.

As the negative factors recede, the company's outlook for fiscal year 2024 is encouraging. With the improvement of the macro environment in fiscal year 2024, the company's injection molding machine business is likely to improve. The revenue of super-large die casting machine may maintain rapid growth and further expand its share in the total revenue. As a result, the company's overall business gross profit margin will be further increased.

The company's super-large die casting machine business is expected to continue to achieve rapid growth. The company aims to deliver at least 30 units in fiscal year 2024, an increase of 36% year-on-year. The company is expected to deliver more and larger tonnage die-casting machines in fiscal year 2024, thus further increasing the average selling price of super-large die-casting machines.

On June 30, 2023, the company reached an agreement with Guangdong Hongtu to deliver a 16000T super die casting machine in the future. As we have previously analyzed, breakthroughs in body manufacturing technology will lead to a demand for larger tonnage machines. The price of a 16000T machine may be three times that of a 7000T machine. Therefore, the super-large die-casting machine is expected to continue to achieve substantial income growth in the future.

The new injection molding machine has entered the automobile supply chain, and the injection molding machine business is expected to improve in fiscal 2024. We believe that the impact of the injection molding machine business on the overall performance of the company will gradually reduce, but we are optimistic that the injection molding machine business will gradually improve in fiscal year 2024. We believe that the company's new injection molding machine in fiscal year 2024 is expected to achieve positive results in the automotive supply chain.

Tesla, Inc. is no longer the decisive factor affecting the company's performance, and we look forward to orders from other automakers. As orders are gradually delivered, Tesla, Inc. 's demand for machines has slowed. However, the company has made significant progress in opening up new customers, especially overseas automakers.

The company has received orders from Korean and American automakers. We expect the company to receive more new orders from other overseas automakers.

Due to the more optimistic earnings forecast, we raised our target price to HK $12.43, maintaining our "buy" rating. We expect the net profit of shareholders of Lijin Technology to reach HK $853 million / HK $1.106 billion / HK $1.386 billion respectively for the fiscal year 2024 to 2026. We expect earnings per share for the 2024-2026 fiscal year to be HK $0.620, HK $0.803 and HK $1.007, respectively. Our target price is based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 20 times fiscal year 2024.

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