Bay area rail transit design leader, energy transformation business to build a second growth curve, give "buy" rating subway design back to Guangzhou Metro, urban rail transit survey and design business as the main business, obvious advantages in various fields, technical advantages in the industry, contract retention scale of more than 10 billion, through the successful contract energy management project to develop new business models, optimistic that the company's future performance will continue to release, market share will further increase. The company's homing net profit has increased for six consecutive years, and the performance target has been exceeded for two consecutive years. We predict that the company's 2023-2025 homing net profit will be 5.11,6.18,697 million yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS 1.28,1.55,1.74 yuan, and the current stock price corresponding to PE is 15.3,12.6,11.2 times, covering for the first time and giving "buy" rating.
The development prospect of urban rail transit is clear, and the company has plenty of orders on hand.
The China Urban Rail Transit Association predicts that the scale of urban rail transit operating lines will be close to 13000 kilometers in 2025, and the number of operating cities is expected to exceed 60. With the full implementation of multi-level traffic planning in several metropolitan areas and urban agglomerations, we expect that the urban fast rail system will usher in a steady and rising stage of sustainable development in the next few years. The rail transit design industry has high qualifications, technology, talents and project experience barriers, showing the characteristics of high market concentration and obvious head effect. In the past six years, the number of successful bidders of the first seven enterprises accounted for about 89%. The company's survey and design business carries out national layout expansion with Guangzhou as the core, adding a total of 8 rail transit general contract projects and 3 preliminary planning tasks in 2022, and the company has 11.3 billion yuan of contracts in hand by the end of June 2022. The overall order on hand is sufficient.
As the first A-share listed company in China with urban rail transit engineering consulting as its main business, the successful contract Energy Management Project Company has Class A qualifications in engineering design, survey, urban and rural planning, engineering consulting and other fields, and has a number of industry-leading innovative technology advantages. In terms of cultivating new business, combined with the development trend of digital technology, the company strives to cultivate business such as engineering digitization, intelligent subway, energy saving and environmental protection, and prefabricated buildings. In 2022, it won the bid for the energy-saving system transformation project of Guangzhou Metro Line 3 and 5. The contract value exceeded 1.2 billion yuan, and the average annual operating income is expected to exceed 80 million yuan during the operation period. At the same time, the company plans to participate in the establishment of Guangzhou Energy Storage Group, seize the great development opportunities of the energy storage industry, and efficiently build energy storage industry clusters.
Risk tips: increased competition in the industry, new orders less than expected, the risk of postponement of accounts receivable.