China's 10 billion electric stapler market continues to grow high, 2023-2028E CAGR 21%
Stapler is widely used in minimally invasive surgery. Electric stapler has better safety, stability and convenience than manual stapler. It is a major trend of clinical treatment to use stapler from manual to electric iteration under endoscope. According to Frost Sullivan's forecast, the market size of electric endoscope stapler 2023-2028 CAGR is about 21% CAGR. The market size is 10.5 billion yuan in 2028.
The market localization rate of electric mirror stapler is about 22%, and the process of domestic substitution is accelerated by collecting mining.
According to Frost Sullivan data, China's electric mirror stapler market still belongs to the competition pattern dominated by imported products. Johnson & Johnson and other foreign products have a market share of more than 70%, and the localization rate is only 22%. There is still plenty of room for substitution. The collection rules of Fujian Alliance have a relatively mild decline for domestic manufacturers, which is conducive to domestic electric stapler manufacturers to win more market share and accelerate the process of domestic substitution.
The company's card position is the leader of the two major plates, and the collection has little impact on the price, which is expected to bring definite volume.
The company has been ploughing the field of electric stapler for many years, and has continuously updated its iterative technical route since it was approved the first electric stapler registration certificate in 2018. At present, it has obtained 4 electric stapler registration certificates (including 1 Class III Certificate and 3 Class II Certificate). After the company's products won the bid in Fujian Union, the rate of decline was within a controllable range, and the impact of price reduction on the core products was ignored. We expect the company to usher in the catalysis of sales performance after the landing of mining. With the damage caused by foreign manufacturers such as Johnson & Johnson, the company is expected to continue to seize more market share in the next 3-5 years, with a market share of more than 15%, and accelerate the expansion of overseas business at the same time. 2) the parent company's baby care business is growing steadily, with a market share of more than 50% over the years, stable orders and strong certainty.
Investment suggestion
We estimate that the total operating income of the company from 2023 to 2025 will reach 792 million yuan, 1.077 billion yuan and 1.408 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 56.4%, 36.1% and 30.7% respectively over the same period last year, and the net profit of returning home will reach 190 million yuan, 270 million yuan and 375 million yuan respectively, up 94.7%, 42.1% and 39.0% respectively. From 2023 to 2025, the corresponding EPS is 0.66,0.94,1.30 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE multiple is 27.25,19.18,13.79 times respectively. Taking into account the benefits of the company's core products, as a domestic electric stapler leader, the concentration is expected to be further enhanced, covering for the first time, giving a "buy" rating.
Risk hint
Product commercialization is less than expected risk, competition aggravates risk, policy risk.