下游汽车客户销量亮眼，助力公司Q2 盈利同环比高增长。23Q2 公司归母净利润预计为6035~7035 万元，同比+40.0%~+63.2%，环比+8.4%~+26.4%。公司主要业务覆盖汽车、通信，汽车领域客户包括比亚迪、特斯拉、秦安股份等；通信领域客户主要为华为、爱立信等龙头。Q2业绩增长主要系下游新能源汽车客户销量增长,其中比亚迪Q2 销量同环比+98.2%/+27.4%，特斯拉（中国）Q2 销量同环比+119.6%/+7.8%。同时，上半年政府补助、资产处置等非经常性损益对公司净利润影响约为2500 万元。Events:
On July 18, the company issued a half-year performance forecast for 2023. It is estimated that the net profit of 2023H1 will be 116 million yuan to 126 million yuan, compared with the same period last year. The non-net profit of 2023H1 deducted from 2023H1 is 91 million yuan to 101 million yuan, and 42.04% from the same period last year.
Core points:
The sales of downstream automobile customers are eye-catching, helping the company's Q2 profit to grow at a high level compared with the previous month. The net profit of 23Q2 is estimated to be 603.5% to 70.35 million yuan, compared with the same period last year, which is 63.2% and 26.4% respectively compared with the same period last year. The company's main business covers automotive, communications, automotive customers including BYD, Tesla, Inc., Qin'an shares, etc.; communications customers are mainly Huawei, Ericsson and other leaders. The growth in Q2 performance is mainly due to the increase in sales of downstream new energy vehicle customers, of which BYD Q2 sales are 27.4% higher than the previous month-on-month ratio of + 98.2%, and Tesla, Inc. (China) Q2 sales are 7.8% higher than the previous month-on-month ratio of + 119.6%. At the same time, the impact of non-recurrent gains and losses such as government subsidies and asset disposal on the company's net profit in the first half of the year was about 25 million yuan.
Automobile lightweight expands new scope: integrated die casting + magnesium alloy. The company has been engaged in the field of automobile lightweight for many years, gradually expanding from aluminum die-casting to integrated die-casting and magnesium alloy die-casting. In April 2023, the company's 7000T super-large integrated body structure came off the line. In June 2023, the company successfully trial-produced super-large magnesium alloy automobile die castings, which is currently the largest known magnesium alloy automobile die-casting structure, with a weight reduction of 32% compared with aluminum alloy castings. With the increase in the penetration of new energy vehicles and the gradual expansion of the demand for lightweight parts, the company is expected to continue to benefit.
Speed up the layout of production capacity and start the first phase of Anhui Merixin project. The company has three major production bases in Xiangyang, Chongqing and Dongguan. Xiangyang base is engaged in the production and sales of aluminum alloy precision die castings; Chongqing base is mainly engaged in the research and development, design, manufacture and sales of aluminum alloy die castings, and the production of fixtures. Aluminum alloy die casting machine processing, chromium-free passivation and powder spraying, as well as communication base station products wing processing; Dongguan base mainly for aluminum alloy die casting surface treatment, assembly and other post-treatment. With the increase in sales of downstream customers, the demand for the company's products increases, and the company speeds up the layout of production capacity. On June 18, the first phase of Anhui Merixin project began. After the completion of the Maanshan plant, it will mainly undertake the production and manufacture of aluminum alloy precision die castings for the three electricity system of new energy vehicles, large and super-large integrated structures and emerging business units, and undertake the company's goal of based on East China and radiating the whole country.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the company's performance will continue to grow under the automobile lightweight and 5G rapid development trend. It is estimated that the company's total operating income in 2023-2025 will be 100 million yuan, respectively, and its parent net profit will be 289pm, respectively. The net profit of EPS is 1.37max, 1.80max, 2.37 yuan respectively. Cover for the first time and give a "recommended" rating.
Risk hints: the recovery of the automobile industry is not as expected; the penetration rate of new energy is not as expected; the progress of 5G base station construction is not as expected; the expansion of new customers is not as expected; and the car price war affects the company's profits.
