Investment event
In the first half of 2023, the company expects to achieve a net profit of 155 million yuan to 180 million yuan, an increase of 104.03% to 136.94% over the same period last year, and to deduct a net profit of 150 million yuan to 175 million yuan, an increase of 127.30% to 165.18% over the same period last year.
Main points of investment
The net profit center of homing is about 85 million in the second quarter, and the order in hand is full. According to the performance forecast, the net profit center of the company in the second quarter of 2023 is about 85 million yuan, an increase of 104.23% over the same period last year and 4.14% from the previous year. According to the order disclosed by the company, the total amount of new projects from January to April in 2023 is about 149to 15.1 billion yuan, with a project cycle of 1-7 years, and from May to June, the total amount of new projects is 13.1-13.4 billion yuan. The project with a period of 1-8 years is expected to be 109-11.1 billion yuan, and the project with a project cycle of 10-12 years is expected to be 22-2.3 billion yuan. The total amount of new orders received by the company in the first half of 2023 is about 28-28.5 billion yuan, which is about 7 times the revenue in 2022. Downstream customers cover new energy vehicles, power batteries, energy storage and photovoltaic inverters, communication servers and other industries, reflecting customer recognition of the company's research and development, technology and production capacity.
Deeply bind downstream front-line customers to supply a variety of products
In the new energy body structure plate, the company is deeply bound to GAC Eian, Chuanqi, BYD and other head car companies, and the Mexican factory has been supporting Yanfeng, Foggia, Cabo, the terminal customers are T customers, Ford, Kia, John Deere, etc., the future target strategic customers are T customers, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Boze and so on. In the optical storage plate, the company has supplied energy storage cabinets, liquid-cooled panels, liquid-cooled plug boxes, photovoltaic inverters and other domestic and foreign well-known enterprises such as C customers, H customers, Xineng an, South Grid Technology, Xiamen Haichen, Enphase, Jinlang Technology, Wheatfield Energy and other domestic and foreign famous enterprises.
Accelerating the expansion of emerging markets is expected to create a second growth curve
In the field of intelligent vehicles, the company provides H customers, Desai Xiwei, Suiteng Juchuang and other companies with products that can be used for VGW intelligent network connection, OBC vehicle charging, mPOWER intelligent electric, AIS fusion sensing, ADS intelligent driving, CDC intelligent cockpit and other modules. In the field of robotics, the company has supplied metal structure-related products for Ubixuan and Kuka.
Profit forecast and valuation
Downgrade earnings forecast and maintain "buy" rating. The company is a veteran of stamping dies and metal structures in the automotive field, and new energy vehicles and optical storage businesses bring new vitality. Taking into account the relatively weak industry demand in 2023 and the intensification of competition in the metal structural parts industry in the future, we cautiously lowered the 23-25 year net profit of the company to 5.06,8.14 and 1.17 billion yuan respectively (7.80,10.55,1.297 billion yuan before the reduction), corresponding to EPS of 2.84,4.56,6.56 yuan per share, and the current stock price corresponding to PE is 16,10,7 times. Maintain a "buy" rating.
Risk hint
The downstream demand is not as expected, the order confirmation rhythm is not as expected, and the market competition is intensified.