Event: the company issued a forecast for the mid-term report of 2023, which estimated that the profit of 2023H1 was 116 million yuan, an increase of 45.54% and 58.09% over the same period last year, and that of 23Q2 was 0.6-70 million yuan, an increase of 39.5% and 62.8%.
Q2 is in line with expectations, and the volume of new energy continues to improve & profit improvement. 23Q2 forecast that the net profit center of ① will increase by 51.2% over the same period last year and 16.1% from the previous year, which is in line with expectations. It is expected that the continuous volume of ① core customers such as Byd and tesla will lead to the rapid growth of aluminum die-casting business of new energy vehicles. In addition, the company's energy storage business expansion has also achieved certain results; the optimization of ② new energy volume structure has brought profits; and the devaluation of ③ RMB has generated certain exchange gains.
The volume of new energy customers accelerated & the new business entered the harvest period, and the automobile business ushered in a simultaneous rise in volume and price under the two-wheel drive of customers and categories.
The company has proved many times in its history that it can deeply tap the strength of its customers. In terms of technology layout, it continues to maintain the vertical layout of the industrial chain and high R & D investment in forward-looking technologies and products. It forms the basis of sustained high growth, rapid entry into new areas, and continuous improvement in profitability. In terms of new business expansion, the integrated die-casting capacity of the automobile business is higher than expected. At present, stable mass production has been achieved and the rate of good products in the whole process is outstanding. Looking forward to the layout of magnesium die-casting, the industrial prospect is promising and a number of technologies have been stored. The automotive business is expected to enter an accelerated harvest period in the past two years, ushering in a sharp rise in volume and price under the two-wheel drive of categories and customers:
1) the potential of platform and globalization in Tesla, Inc. system: platform is from automobile to energy storage, globalization is to follow T to go to sea.
2) the clamping advantage of new business integrated die casting and project experience are expected to accelerate customer expansion from 1 to N3) energy storage and magnesium die casting incremental business from 0 to 1
Profit forecast: considering the optimization of profitability after the volume of the company's new energy business, we adjust the company's 23-25 net profit to 2.86,3.91 and 541 million yuan (the previous value is 2.84,3.76 and 537 million yuan), with year-on-year growth rates of 28%, 37% and 38%, respectively, and maintain the "buy" rating for the previous PE 29X, 21X and 15x.
Risk hints: the demand for new energy is lower than expected, aluminum prices rise sharply, new business expansion is not as expected, etc.