Event: the company's 23-year net profit of H1 is expected to be-1.1 billion ~-900 million yuan, compared with-1.1 billion ~-700 million yuan last year. 23Q2 expects to achieve a net profit of-900 million yuan to-700 million yuan, compared with the same period of last year-300 million yuan to-100 million yuan, month-on-month-800 million yuan to-600 million yuan.
Comments:
The decline in refined oil profits has put pressure on the 23-year Q2 performance. 23Q2, the average sales price of diesel, gasoline, aviation kerosene, PX, polyethylene and polypropylene is 6325, 7964, 4116, 7417, 6846 and 6849 yuan per ton, respectively, compared with the same period last year. In terms of output, the company's output of diesel, gasoline, aviation kerosene, PX, polyethylene and polypropylene was 101,84,41,18,14 and 110000 tons respectively, which was + 149%, + 53%, + 194%, + 24%, + 40% and + 9% respectively compared with the same period last year. In terms of sales volume, the company's sales of diesel, gasoline, aviation kerosene, PX, polyethylene and polypropylene were 40, 55, 14, 15, 10 and 100000 tons respectively, which were + 131%, + 54%, + 159%, + 29%, + 25% and + 10% respectively compared with the same period last year. In terms of price difference, the price differences of oil refining, PX and polypropylene are 940,468,662 yuan / ton, respectively, compared with the same period of last year. 23Q2 affected by the fall in crude oil prices, the company's refined oil profits declined, resulting in Q2 performance under pressure.
Continue to build carbon fiber industry clusters, steady progress in the layout of new materials: the company continues to carry out the layout of carbon fiber industry, speed up the construction of key projects, and promote transformation, upgrading and green development with project construction. In October 2022, 48k large tow carbon fiber domestic line was put into operation in the carbon fiber industrial base of Shanghai Petrochemical Corporation, and qualified products were produced. The project adopts China Petroleum & Chemical self-developed polyacrylonitrile (PAN)-based large tow precursor and carbon fiber technology, and is implemented in two stages. It is planned to be completed and put into production in 2024, with a production capacity of 24,000 tons / year and 12,000 tons / year of large tow carbon fiber. In 23 years, the company plans to realize the commercial operation of the first phase of 48K large tow, start the second phase of plant construction, and build 100-ton high-performance carbon fiber test equipment and aviation composite pilot plant. In addition, the 250,000 t / a thermoplastic elastomer project, a key project in Shanghai, is progressing steadily. Promote hidden trouble management and environmental protection projects, and photovoltaic and other new energy projects, hydrogen fuel cell hydrogen supply center project in the second phase, the first megawatt photovoltaic power station project completed. The company continues to promote the large tow carbon fiber project, the new material project advances steadily, and the company's performance is expected to increase after the release of production capacity.
Earnings forecast, valuation and rating: due to the decline in the profitability of the company affected by the fall in oil prices, we downgrade the company's profit forecast for 2023-2024 and add the 2025 profit forecast. It is estimated that the company's net profit for 2023-2025 will be 0.08x7x866 million yuan respectively, corresponding to 0.007xpx EPS 0.08 yuan. The company speeds up the construction of key projects, the layout of new materials capacity is promoted, and the company has sufficient momentum for future growth, so it maintains the "overweight" rating of the company's A-shares and H-shares.
Risk hint: the risk of large fluctuations in crude oil prices, new capacity put in less than expected risk.