The factors driving the company's profits have changed. The company's current products include sunshade, headrest, ceiling central controller, etc. In 2022, the proportion of revenue from sunshade, headrest and ceiling central controller is 71.1%, 15.1% and 8.1%, respectively. It is expected that the profit driving factors will change in the future, and the ceiling business is expected to become the elasticity of future earnings growth: the value of ceiling bicycles increases, customers expand to North American new energy car companies, and the profitability of ceiling products is higher than that of existing products.
Overseas North American market ceiling market space and competition pattern. Considering the unit price of the roof of new energy vehicles in North America, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles and the sales volume of new energy vehicles, it is estimated that the market space of roof system assemblies of new energy vehicles in North America will increase from 4.4 billion yuan in 2022 to 16.3 billion yuan in 2025, and the CAGR will be about 54.2% in 2022-2025. The participants in the North American ceiling market mainly include Antunlin, Toyota Textile, Hexi Industry and so on. The revenue and profit ends of the ceiling business of foreign-funded leading enterprises such as Antunlin and Hexi Industries are under great pressure. it is expected that new entrants to the ceiling market, such as companies, are expected to take the lead in the field of new energy by virtue of their cost-effective and rapid response advantages, and enhance their share of the North American ceiling market.
It is expected that the ceiling is where the company's future earnings growth flexibility lies. According to the company's convertible bond prospectus, the unit price of the company's ceiling products is 700yuan per set; the unit price of ceiling system integration products is 4000 yuan per set, which is much higher than the existing products. It is expected that the gross profit margin and net profit margin of the roof project will be higher than the current level of the company. According to the company's announcement, revenue from ceiling fundraising projects is expected to account for 10.7% and 17.6% of the total revenue in 2024 and 2025, taking into account the ceiling business other than fund-raising projects, the revenue proportion of the ceiling business is expected to be 16.7% and 23.2% respectively from 2024 to 2025, and it is expected that the ceiling business will become the main growth point of the company's profits.
It is expected that Tesla, Inc. 's supporting income and profit contribution are expected to increase rapidly. The company is the exclusive global supplier of Tesla, Inc. sunshades. Tesla, Inc. became the company's fifth largest customer in 2022, accounting for 6.76% of revenue. According to the company's investor Q & A, the company has supplied roof integrated system products for Tesla, Inc.. After the Mexican ceiling expansion project is completed and put into production, the company is expected to improve its competitiveness in the field of new energy vehicle ceilings in North America, and is expected to continue to be designated for Tesla, Inc. 's existing and new models. With the commissioning of Tesla, Inc. 's plant in Mexico and the gradual release of the Cybertruck and the next generation of new models, Tesla, Inc. 's sales are expected to account for a gradual increase in the company's total revenue.
By adjusting the forecast of income and gross profit margin, it is predicted that the net profit of the company from 2023 to 2025 will be 8.64,10.97 and 1.386 billion yuan respectively (the original 8.60,10.71 and 1.313 billion yuan in 2023-2025), which is comparable to the average valuation of the company's 23-year PE of 30 times, corresponding to the target price of 20.4 yuan.
Risk hint
The sales volume of passenger car industry is lower than expected, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in North American market is lower than expected, Tesla, Inc. and other car companies' new energy vehicle sales are lower than expected, and the hypothetical changes affect the estimated results.