Foton Motor 2023H1 is expected to achieve a net profit of 580 million yuan, which is about + 166% of the same period last year. On July 14, Foton Motor issued a forecast for the first half of 2023. It is expected to achieve a net profit of 580 million yuan in the first half of 2023, which is about + 166% compared with the same period last year. The net profit is 390 million yuan, + 43.5% compared with the same period last year. In a single quarter, 2023Q2 is expected to achieve a net profit of 282 million yuan, + 240% year-on-year and-5% compared with the same period last year. The net profit after deducting non-return is 216 million yuan, reversing losses compared with the same period last year, and + 24% compared with the same period last year. Taking into account the accelerated repair of the company's product sales, we slightly raised our profit forecast for 2023-2024 and added the profit forecast for 2025. it is estimated that the net profit from 2023 to 2025 will be 15.05,26.24 (+ 1.24) / 3.584 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to an EPS of 0.19,0.02 / 0.33 (+ 0.02) / 0.45RMB, and the corresponding stock price PE is 19.1 / 10.98.0 times. The company's sales volume has increased steadily, the business structure has been continuously optimized and promoted to reduce costs and increase efficiency, and the company's "overweight" rating has been maintained.
Sales growth + business structure optimization + rate optimization, 2023H1 performance is expected to be higher than the same period last year. Sales in the commercial vehicle industry are expected to pick up in 2023. 2023H1 expects commercial vehicle sales to reach 303900 units, a year-on-year increase of 21.5%, of which overseas sales increased by 30.8% over the same period last year. At the same time, the profits of joint and joint ventures such as Efu Futian and Fukang post-processing increased compared with the same period last year, and the sales growth superimposed business structure continued to optimize to help the company improve profitability. In 2023, the company will promote digital reform, deepen the construction of the value creation system, continue to promote the whole value chain to reduce costs and increase efficiency, optimize rates, and significantly improve the company's profitability.
The light truck leader may be the first to benefit from the repair of sales in the industry, and exports are expected to increase. The company is the leader in the light truck industry. According to the first commercial vehicle data, the cumulative market share of Futian motor light trucks reached 22.5% from January to May 2023, while the market share of heavy trucks increased steadily, and the market share of heavy trucks is expected to increase from 10.1% in 2022 to 11.7% of 2023H1. As the commercial car industry picks up, the company is expected to be the first to benefit from the growth dividend.
Fukuda Daimler may benefit from the gradual increase in Mercedes-Benz heavy truck sales to bring profit flexibility. Industry exports continue to be high, overseas markets benefit from construction demand + emission standards upgrade, commercial vehicles in the traditional cycle stock nature on the basis of superimposed growth attributes, the company is expected to promote export growth.
Risk tips: the recovery of commercial vehicles is not as expected, the cost of raw materials is rising, and overseas market expansion is not as expected.