[investment points]
Jingshan Light Machinery: component automation + corrugated packaging equipment leader, vertically expand the battery equipment layout.
The company started from packaging machinery and equipment, and entered the field of photovoltaic automation equipment through the acquisition of Suzhou Shengcheng in 2017. Since 2021, the company has extended from module automation equipment to TOPCon and HJT battery equipment, and prospected the layout of perovskite and other cutting-edge photovoltaic technology equipment. Benefiting from the expansion of the photovoltaic industry, the company's operating income grew at a compound growth rate of 29.07% in 2019-2022 and 136.49% in 2020-2022. 2023Q1's operating income reached 1.327 billion yuan, an increase of 28.01 percent over the same period last year, and its net profit reached 53 million yuan, an increase of 61.49 percent over the same period last year.
Perovskite equipment: forward-looking layout of a new generation of photovoltaic technology, card position hundreds of billions of blue ocean market. Perovskite has the advantages of high conversion efficiency limit, low material cost and short technological process, rapid progress in industrialization, and broad market space for perovskite equipment. We predict that the global perovskite equipment market will reach 98.518 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound growth rate of 90.11% from 2022 to 2030.
We believe that the perovskite industry, similar to TOPCon/HJT in 2019, is on the eve of industrialization, and the pioneering equipment enterprises are expected to enjoy the technology iteration dividend. At the same time, there is a significant difference between perovskite and crystal silicon N-type iteration, providing new entrants with opportunities to overtake in the corner. The company's perovskite products include PVD coating equipment, cluster multi-cavity evaporation equipment and spatial ALD equipment, covering the core process of perovskite, while the company continues to increase investment in the perovskite field to ensure the company's leading position in the perovskite equipment field.
Crystal silicon equipment: the market share of component automation equipment is leading, and the vertical development of N-type battery equipment. 1) component automation equipment: the photovoltaic industry is booming to increase the size and thin chip trend to accelerate the iteration of component equipment. We estimate that the market scale of photovoltaic automation production line + laminator from 2023 to 2025 will be 102.1 pound 91.8 billion yuan. The company's component automation equipment market share is leading in the industry, and customers cover high-end component factories at home and abroad, and business is expected to grow steadily; 2) Battery equipment: we expect the market size of TOPCon battery equipment from 2023 to 2025 to be 713amp 296 billion yuan respectively, and the market size of HJT battery will be 100 million yuan respectively in 34-30-27. In terms of TOPCon, the company launched PVD&PECVD two-in-one coating equipment, which can effectively alleviate the problems of winding plating and film burst, and the products have been delivered to the client for verification; in terms of HJT, the company holds hands with Goldstone Energy and arranges HJT cleaning equipment, which has now obtained 4GW orders.
Corrugated packaging equipment: environmental protection policy + logistics development to promote demand, the company has obvious advantages. With the characteristics of lightweight, recyclable and easy to degrade, corrugated boxes have gradually become the main choice in the field of transport packaging. At the same time, countries continue to introduce standardized policies this year to promote the "green revolution" of express packaging, and the demand for corrugated boxes is expected to continue to rise. The company has ploughed corrugated packaging equipment for many years and has significant first-mover advantages in market share, customer accumulation and technology.
[investment advice]
We estimate that the operating income of the company from 2023 to 2025 will be 65.88 million yuan, respectively, and the net profit will be 463 million yuan, 626 million yuan, and 123 million yuan, respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 25.47, 18.81, 15.37 times, respectively. With reference to peer valuation and considering the company's leading position in perovskite equipment, the company is expected to fully benefit from perovskite volume in the future, giving the company a "buy" rating of 25 times PE in 2024, corresponding to a 12-month target price of 25.25 yuan.
[risk Tip]
The capacity expansion of photovoltaic industry is less than expected.
The progress of perovskite industrialization is not as expected.
Technical iteration leads to the decline of the competitiveness of the company's products.