Today's typhoon “Telly” hit the market, and Hong Kong stocks simply stopped, while A-shares were sluggish. Look at the “green oil” market.
On the market, gaming, coal, pharmaceuticals, liquor, automobiles, semiconductor stocks, etc. all fell sharply; only virtual power plants,power grid equipment,A few concepts, such as communication equipment, strengthened against the market.
By the end of midday trading,Canaan Smart has risen and stopped by 20cm, Wansheng Smart has risen more than 15%, Zhongzhi Technology has risen more than 10%, Guodian Nanzi, Huatong Cable, and Jicheng Electronics have risen and stopped, while Xinlian Electronics and Anko Smart Electronics have followed suit.
According to the news,Recently, a series of documents such as the “Shenzhen Virtual Power Plant Accurate Response Implementation Rules”, “Shenzhen Virtual Power Plant Accurate Response Management Measures” and “Shenzhen Virtual Power Plant Accurate Response Pledge” were officially released. This is the first set of guiding documents for the operation of the Shenzhen Virtual Power Plant.
The document stipulates that the real-time accurate response price in Shenzhen is fixed at 5 yuan/kilowatt-hour, which is about 8 times the electricity price for residents in Shenzhen. It helps stimulate virtual power plant operators to improve their technical level and achieve the goal of real-time grid regulation.
The virtual power plant concept takes off
Right now,The reason for the popularity of virtual power plants is mainly due to two factors.
On the one hand, under El Niño, high temperature alarms go off frequently, and the maximum electricity consumption load in many places has been refreshed over and over again.
At the beginning of this month, the World Meteorological Organization announced that El Niño conditions were formed in the tropical Pacific region for the first time in 7 years. Temperatures are expected to rise further in most regions of the world in the future, and record high temperatures may occur within 5 years.The World Meteorological Organization also predicts thatThere is a 90% chance that an El Niño event will occur between July and September 2023 and continue until the end of the year, and it is at least moderately intense.
On the domestic side, hot weather has also swept through many places. According to the report of the National Climate Center, the country's average temperature hit the second highest since 1961 in June this year, and it is expected that in the midsummer of 2023 (July to August), temperatures in most parts of the country will be close to the same period of the year.
At the same time, under continued high temperatures, electricity supply and demand ushered in a major explosion.According to data disclosed by the National Energy Administration, from January to June this year, the total electricity consumption of the entire society was 4307.6 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 5% over the previous year. Among them, the electricity consumption of the whole society in June was 775.1 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 3.9% over the previous year. Liang Changxin, director of the General Department of the National Energy Administration, has also publicly stated that the country's maximum electricity load is expected to exceed 1.36 billion kilowatts this year, which is a significant increase from last year.
On the other hand, continued catalysis on the policy side.Since mid-May,Policies such as the “Notice on Transmission and Distribution Prices and Related Matters for Provincial Power Grids in the Third Supervision Cycle”, “Electricity Demand Side Management Measures (Draft for Comments)”, “Electricity Load Management Measures (Draft for Comments)”, and “Blue Paper on the Development of New Power Systems” have been issued one after another.
Last week (July 11), the Central Commission for Deep Reform deliberated and approved the “Guiding Opinions on Deepening the Reform of the Power System and Accelerating the Construction of New Power Systems”, which emphasized the need to deepen the reform of the power system, accelerate the construction of a clean, low-carbon, safe and abundant, cost-effective, supply-demand, flexible and intelligent new power system to better promote the revolution in energy production and consumption, and ensure the country's energy security.
As can be seen from this, withThe policy trend is obvious.Intensive catalysis is still expected in the future,The construction of a new power system is also entering a period of accelerated transformation.
And under the resonance of the above factors,As an important part of the stable supply of electricity, virtual power plants have also made them rapidly become the A-share market this summer”Hot hits”.
Is it time to work hard?
With the explosion of virtual power plants, how big is their market space?Some agencies expect itThe overall market space of virtual power plants is expected to reach 72.3 billion yuan by 2025, and their market space may reach 196.1 billion yuan by 2030.
From the perspective of the secondary market,The strengthening of the virtual power plant concept may also drive the development of the industrial chain.
The virtual power plant industry chain mainly consists of three major links: upstream basic resources (distributed power supply, energy storage, controllable load), midstream system aggregation platform, and downstream power demand side (power grid companies, power sales companies).
Source:Guojin Securities
Guojin Securities believes that in the context of accelerated construction of new power systems, virtual power plants, as an important adjustment means for coordinating distributed resources to participate in power transactions and demand responses, benefit from industrial policies and increasing demand for power grids, and are expected to lead to rapid development of the industry. It is recommended to focus on:
1) Virtual power plant resource aggregators: Guoneng Nissin, Teride;
2) Software platform providers: State Grid ICT, Dongfang Electronics;
3) Hardware and solution system provider: Ancore.
CICC also pointed out that it is estimated that by 2025, China's virtual power plants can aggregate resource space to reach more than 500 GW. As the electricity market continues to improve, the business model is expected to improve.
In the early stages of development, we were optimistic about the increase in software and hardware demand for virtual power plants, which led to an increase in the performance of related manufacturers. In the long run, we focused on improving profit models to drive benefits for virtual power plant operators.