Items:
On July 14, 2023, the company issued a half-year performance forecast for 2023:
1) 2023H1: the company expects to achieve a net profit of 0.70% to 80 million yuan, which is-58.11% to 63.35% compared with the same period last year, and is expected to realize a net profit of 0.65% to 0.73 million yuan, which is-57.57% and 62.22% over the same period last year.
2) 2023Q2: the company expects to achieve a net profit of RMB 0.41 billion to RMB 0.51 million, compared with the same period last year, which is 48.09%, + 45.04% and 80.05%, respectively. The net profit after deduction is expected to be RMB 0.45 million, which is 39.93% compared with the same period last year, and + 118.23% and 157.39% respectively.
Comments:
The industry cycle has hit bottom and warmed up and new business has continued to expand, and the company's profits have appeared an obvious inflection point. According to the median calculation, the company expects 2023Q2 to achieve a net profit of 46 million yuan, a year-on-month ratio of-53.13% and a net profit of 62.54%; a net profit of 49 million yuan, and a profit of 137.81%. From the trend of profit month-on-month, we think that the low point of the industry cycle has passed, and the company has ushered in a profit inflection point. Looking to the future, the recovery of the industry cycle will lead to the improvement of the company's capacity utilization, which in turn will lead to a significant increase in the company's profits. at the same time, the company will continue to develop new areas such as car camera packaging and micro optical device manufacturing to open up room for growth. future performance is expected to return to the high growth track.
The company's medium-and high-pixel products are gradually introduced into mass production, and the demand in the field of security and mobile phones is expected to pick up gradually. With reference to the forecast of the International Big Factory Law Conference, we believe that the semiconductor industry is expected to usher in a new upward cycle in the second half of 2023. At present, the destocking stage of some domestic chip industry companies may be coming to an end, and the demand for mobile phones, security and other related pan-consumer chips is also expected to gradually pick up, and the company is expected to benefit from the recovery of downstream demand; at the same time, the company's technology has a comparative advantage in the field of low-and medium-pixel product packaging, as wafer-level packaging technology continues to break through the pixel limit, the company's future growth space has been opened. In addition, the application scenarios of security monitoring continue to enrich, and the company, as the leader of the CIS wafer-level packaging subdivision track, is expected to fully benefit from the high growth of the industry.
The company is actively expanding production, layout, automotive CIS and other emerging areas, binding high-quality customers to promote long-term development. The trend of automobile electrification and intelligence promotes the rapid growth of the demand for on-board cameras. The company focuses on the field of automotive electronics and builds the world's first 12-inch wafer-level silicon through-hole packaging technology mass production line, which is deeply bound with Howe and other high-quality customers, to maintain industry leadership in automotive CIS mass production, and is expected to benefit from the outbreak of downstream demand in the future. In addition, with the gradual rise of new CIS application fields such as medical treatment, VR/AR and industrial intelligence, the company has accumulated profound technology, and the new application field is expected to become a new growth point of business in the future.
Investment suggestion: as the leader of CIS wafer-level packaging subdivision track, the company has profound technology accumulation and high customer structure, and is expected to continue to benefit from the high growth of automotive CIS demand and the emergence of new CIS application scenarios. Considering the slow recovery of terminal demand such as mobile phones, we reduce the company's homing net profit forecast for 2023-2025 from RMB 348pm to RMB 621m, corresponding to EPS of RMB 0.46max and RMB 0.70max.
Taking into account the company's historical PE valuation range and comparable company valuation, it will be given 55 times PE in 2023, with a target price of 25.3 yuan per share, maintaining a "strong push" rating.
Risk tips: mobile phones, security and other downstream areas are not as prosperous as expected; changes in the external trade environment cause uncertainty; the progress of new products and new market expansion is not as expected.