Summary

Xingshuai 2, with a scale of 460 million yuan, will be listed on Monday, July 17, 2023. According to our new coupon pricing model, we think that under the current situation of the company's stock price, its convertible bond listing may be located around 133.54 yuan, with a premium rate of about 31.86%.

Positive stock analysis

The main products of issuer Xingshuai are thermal protectors, starters and sealed terminal posts, which are used in refrigerators, freezers, air conditioners, drinking fountains and other refrigeration compressors and washing machine dryers. The company's compound revenue growth rate of 34.88% in the past five years is OK. The company expects 1H2023 to achieve a net profit of 108-122 million yuan (YoY+40.7%~+58.94%), which is the rapid development of photovoltaic module business. Taking photovoltaic modules as the starting point, the company actively develops clean energy projects such as solar panels, photovoltaic power station construction, photovoltaic power station operation and maintenance, while actively stepping into the new energy storage track and promoting projects such as energy storage and new energy vehicle motors. The funds raised by this issue of convertible bonds will be used for the annual production of 2GW high-efficiency solar photovoltaic module project and 2GW high-efficiency solar photovoltaic module project. The company is expected to be completed and gradually put into production by the end of this year.

The positive stock market value in the convertible bond target is medium to small, and the elasticity is general. The total market capitalization of positive shares is 4.147 billion yuan, which is medium and small in the target of convertible bonds, with tradable shares accounting for 70.77%. The company's current TTM is 32.77x, which is at the low level of its own history, and the MRQ is 2.9x, which is at the middle level of its own history. The attention of equity institutions is low, with a volatility of 37.8% in the past 180 days. according to our model, the annualized volatility in the next two months is about 35.2%, with general elasticity.

According to our pricing model, ZTE convertible bonds, Xiao Xiong convertible bonds, Baichang convertible bonds, Enjie convertible bonds, Ligao convertible bonds and other convertible bonds have great reference value for the current convertible bonds. we estimate that the secondary market pricing should be around 133.54 yuan, with a premium rate of about 31.86%.

Risk

The risk of market fluctuation, the progress of the fund-raising project is not as expected.