Event: the company issued a semi-annual performance forecast for 2023 on July 14. in the first half of the year, the company is expected to achieve a net profit of 108 million yuan, 122 million yuan, 58.94% compared with the same period last year, and an estimated net profit of 100 million yuan, 114 million yuan after deduction, compared with the same period last year.
Photovoltaic wings continue to drive high performance. According to our conversion, Q2 is expected to achieve a net profit of 0.63 million yuan, an increase of + 60.90% and 96.69%, and an estimated net profit of 0.58 billion yuan, 76.92% and 119.82%, which is significantly faster than that of Q1. We believe that the main reasons for the performance growth may include: 1) the production capacity of photovoltaic modules has increased significantly compared with the same period last year, the production and sales of full orders are booming, and the proportion of Fuller new energy has increased significantly, which greatly increased the overall performance of the parent company; 2) the business of the home appliance sector remained robust, and the decline in raw material prices over the same period last year freed profit margins. 3) Motor plate company continues to expand product application scenarios and sales channels, we think it is expected to contribute vitality to the company's growth.
The production capacity of components is expanding steadily, and the energy storage increment can be expected in the future. The company firmly creates an integrated and two-wing development model of "based on the home appliance plate and guided by the new energy plate", and each plate actively broadens the product reserve and market channels. At the same time, the company's convertible bonds are about to be issued and listed, and the infrastructure of the investment project "Annual 2GW High efficiency Solar Photovoltaic Module Project" has started, and the company is expected to complete and gradually put into production by the end of this year, and the production and sales of photovoltaic modules are expected to further increase in the future. In addition, the company is stepping up its energy storage project, and has carried out strategic cooperation with Shaanxi Changfeng Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd., which is mainly engaged in lithium battery energy storage and microgrid system research and production, and is expected to gradually contribute profits with follow-up shipments.
Profit forecast: we expect the company's operating income for 23-25 to be 36.31 / 8.484 billion yuan, respectively, which is + 86.3%, 82.6% and 27.9% respectively compared with the same period last year; and the net profit of the home company is 2.12 picks 2.76 / 334 million yuan, which is + 77.6%, 30.5% and 21.0% respectively compared with the same period last year, corresponding to a PE of 19.60, 15.02, 12.41 times. Maintain a "buy" rating.
Risk factors: raw material price fluctuation, exchange rate fluctuation, capacity development is not as expected, market demand is not as expected, industry competition is intensified, and so on.