Event: Yiling Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. issued a half-year performance forecast for 2023, which is expected to achieve a net profit of 15.73-1.678 billion yuan (a year-on-year increase of 50%-1.678 billion yuan) and non-net profit of 14.71-1.628 billion yuan (a year-on-year increase of 40% 55%). It is estimated that single Q2 will achieve a net profit of RMB 370-475 million (down 16%-34% compared with the same period last year), with a median of 423 million yuan (- 25% compared with the same period last year), deducting non-net profit of RMB 2.93-451 million (down 20% by 48% compared with the same period last year) and a median of 372 million yuan (- 34% compared with the same period last year).
Q2 performance is obviously under pressure, mainly due to the large base of Lianhua pandemic in the same period last year, and the company's active control of goods to digest the inventory of Lianhua pandemic caused by 22Q4 and 23Q1 epidemic + influenza in channels and households, and the company's expenses are less after the 22Q2 outbreak, and 23Q2 is expected to return to the normal level.
The research and development of varieties of traditional Chinese medicine has progressed smoothly. Qihuang Mingmu capsule for the treatment of diabetic retinopathy has been declared for new drugs; Luobitong tablet for rheumatoid arthritis, Chaihuang Lidan capsule for chronic cholecystitis, Yuping Tongqiao tablet for allergic rhinitis, Lianhua Qinggan granule for children's cold are developing phase III clinic; Huoxia Ganmao granule for treating gastrointestinal cold and Shenrong granule for treating amyotrophic lateral sclerosis du Yuan deficiency syndrome are approved. Chaiqintonglin tablet approved for new treatment of "recurrent urinary tract infection"
Clinical trials of indications; Yangzheng Xiaoji capsule has been approved to carry out new clinical trials for the treatment of "cancer-related fatigue"; Rujietai capsule for the treatment of breast swelling and pain and breast hyperplasia has completed the clinical study of phase IV, and has passed the State Drug Administration to change the listed holder to Yiling Pharmaceutical.
Maintain a "buy" rating. It is estimated that the 2023-2025 net profit from homing to home will be RMB 2.988 million, an increase of 9.6%, 12.6%, 14.5% and 2.00 yuan respectively, corresponding to PE of 16.1, 14.3 and 12.5x, respectively. Taking into account the company's unique collateral disease theory under the guidance of patented new drug research and development and academic marketing promotion model, maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk hints: policy adjustment risk, R & D innovation risk, cost rising risk