Main points of investment:
The company released a half-year performance forecast for 2023, and the performance was in line with expectations. In the first half of the year, the company realized a net profit of 26 million-28.5 million (a loss of 150 million yuan in the same period last year), returning to 80.55% Rue 88.29% in the first half of 1919. The deduction of non-net profit was 2100-23.5 million yuan, which was restored to 88.52% of H1 in 19 years. 104.03%. 23Q2 expects to achieve a net profit of 1683-193.3 billion yuan, compared with a loss of 152 million yuan in the same period last year, returning to 77.77% of Q2 in 1919.
Tourism and catering business recovered strongly, Dragon Boat Festival and May Day tourism continued to recover, and summer tourism continued to heat up. The passenger flow during the May Day holiday in 2023 recovered substantially, and the offline tourism and catering market was hot. In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 12.70% compared with the same period last year, of which the growth rate of catering income was 35.1%. The Dragon Boat Festival in June continued the popularity of the holiday, with more than 100 million tourists, and tourism led to continued popularity of food and beverage consumption. As a time-honored catering company, the company has a strong performance following the pace of the peak consumption season. According to the monitoring of the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Commerce, the company's turnover during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday increased by 6.1 times compared with the same period last year, and the summer vacation is expected to rise further.
Give full play to the advantages of brand + channel, create multiple prefabricated food matrix, and constantly release food production capacity. The company makes use of the advantages of catering to clearly define the brand of each prefabricated dish and form a relatively perfect brand matrix. Quanjude brand positioning "do fine enough roast duck products", Fengze Yuan brand positioning in "close to the people's livelihood of cooked food products", Sichuan boss brand positioning in "classic Sichuan cuisine, mass consumption".
The company actively expand roast duck, food cakes and other food e-commerce sales channels. In Tmall roast duck product TOP5, the company has 2 products on the list. At the same time, expand Tik Tok's channels, accumulate popularity for brand accounts through the columns of "Food Evaluation" and "Store experience", and promote product consumption and offline store consumption through a combination of group purchase coupons, roast duck packages and popular styles through live sales.
Group meal + takeout business diversified development, create digitalization to broaden the young consumption circle. The company uses the experience of modern catering operation and the advantages of the brand to achieve the "Global partner Restaurant" and Beijing Wildlife Park and other group meal projects. In 2020, the company launched ele.me and launched an one-person roast duck package with remarkable results. In order to break through the traditional consumption circle, the company launched and enriched the IP content of "Mengbao Duck", and launched the sale ceremony of "Digital Collection" on the 22nd anniversary, which conveyed Quanjude brand culture to the broad audience in a younger and digital way, and enhanced the recognition of the brand in the eyes of young consumers.
Investment analysis opinion: considering that the passenger flow of the company is still in slow repair during the non-holiday period, and the fixed costs of stores and employees are still relatively rigid, we lower our profit forecast for 23-24 to 0.75 million yuan (the previous value is 0.87 hundred million yuan), and the 25-year return net profit is 179 million yuan, corresponding to the 23-25 year PE is 53-27-22, and the corresponding PEG multiple for 23 years is 1.2 times. Combined with the 23-25 CAGR of 55% of the company's parent net profit, the company is given a target price of 15.3 yuan, corresponding to a target increase of 21%, maintaining a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: the recovery of uncertainty of terminal consumption, the intensification of competition in the prefabricated food industry, and the promotion of new products is not as expected.