Company announcement: Foton Motor issued a semi-annual report performance forecast for 2023, realizing a net profit of about 580 million yuan, + 166% compared with the same period last year; deducting non-homed net profit of about 391 million yuan, + 435% compared with the same period last year; corresponding to 2023Q2 net profit of about 282 million yuan, compared with the same month-on-month comparison, the performance of 5% Q2 was basically in line with our expectations.
The domestic demand of the industry side is improving + the export is strong, the whole vehicle + parts of the company side are all improving, the market share of light trucks is higher than the same period last year, and the business structure is optimized; overseas business focuses on core countries and regions, and sales volume is high compared with the same period last year. The 2023Q2 commercial vehicle industry has accumulated wholesale sales of about 1.03 million vehicles, which are + 44% and 10% respectively compared with the same period last year. The sharp increase over the same period last year is mainly due to the low base caused by the closure and control of the domestic epidemic in the same period last year, and the month-on-month growth is mainly due to the failure of the commercial vehicle industry to recover in January. From the perspective of vehicle business: the company sold 143700 2023Q2 commercial vehicles (46500 in June), which were + 31% and 10% respectively compared with the same month. The slight decline in the month-on-month decline was mainly due to seasonal factors, with a market share of 13.9% and-1.45pct/-3.18pct respectively. The overall market share of commercial vehicles decreased slightly. The sales volume of 2023Q2 light trucks is 101400, which is + 37% and 5% respectively compared with the previous month. The slight decline is mainly due to the demand overdraft in March, with a market share of 22.42% and + 2.34pct/-0.55pct, respectively. The market share of light trucks fluctuates slightly, and the overall sales volume increases to improve profitability. Spare parts business dimension: benefiting from the recovery of the commercial vehicle industry, the profits of joint and joint ventures such as Foton and Fukang reprocessing increased year-on-year, affecting the company's main business profits rose sharply compared with the same period last year.
Looking to the future, the commercial vehicle industry recovers, Futian light truck builds high barriers with the comprehensive layout of "product + technology + marketing", medium heavy truck / bus / engine / gearbox blossoms at multiple points, and the performance is expected to continue to make progress; in the long run, the transformation of new electric intelligence will enhance domestic competitiveness, and overseas markets will accelerate the development and expansion of influence. The company promotes digital change, deepens the construction of value creation system, continues to promote the whole value chain to reduce costs and increase efficiency, the business structure is constantly optimized, and profitability is expected to be improved.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we maintain the company's total operating income of RMB 598.59 in 2025 and RMB 87.266 million in net profit belonging to the parent company. The net profit attributed to the parent company is RMB 2.821 billion, which is + 2092%, respectively, compared with the same period last year. The corresponding EPS is RMB 0.18, and the corresponding PE is RMB 0.270.35, and the "Buy" rating is maintained.
Risk hint: the recovery of the commercial vehicle industry is not as expected; the price of raw materials fluctuates sharply; competition intensifies.