Main points of investment:
Event: the company issued a performance forecast for the first half of 2023. It is estimated that the net profit of returning to the mother in the first half of 2023 is 145 million yuan, an adjusted increase of 33.6% and 52.03% compared with the same period last year. The net profit after deducting non-return is expected to be 0.95 billion yuan, an increase of 40.66% and 70.27% over the same period last year. It is in line with our previous expected net profit of 150 million yuan.
The year-on-year growth is mainly due to better wind conditions, and the large deduction of non-profit or loss is expected to come from the acquisition of wind power assets. The company's non-recurrent profit and loss in the first half of 2023 is 50 million yuan, which is expected to be mainly the pre-delivery income of the acquisition project in 2023. According to the company announcement, the company completed the acquisition of 200000 kilowatts of wind power assets in Helan Mountain, Alashan left Banner on June 26, 2023, and the project achieved a net profit of 102 million yuan (subsidized electricity price project) in 2021. In addition, the company's adjusted year-on-year growth in the first half of the year mainly benefited from the improvement of incoming wind in Ningxia compared with the same period last year. According to wind, the number of hours of wind power utilization in Ningxia from January to May in 2023 was 878 hours, an increase of 134 hours over the same period last year, or a growth rate of 18%, which was basically the same as the growth rate in the first quarter.
Ningxia's first wind power operator has great flexibility to replace small ones with large ones. The company issued a fixed increase plan in March this year (major shareholders subscribe for 40.23% of the shares). The fixed increase project is Ningdong 250000 kilowatt photovoltaic and two old wind farms to replace the small (total 91.8MW). The registration draft of the subscription prospectus has been issued on June 19 this year. Among them, Ningdong 250000 kilowatt photovoltaic project was put into production in May this year, with a total investment of 1.074 billion yuan and a total investment return of 6.67%. Taking into account the commissioning period after production, profits are expected to be mainly released in the second half of this year. The company currently has an installed capacity of 1.92 million kilowatts, including 1.61 million kilowatts of wind power and 310000 kilowatts of photovoltaic power, and is expected to maintain this installed scale by the end of this year. The retrofit of 91.8MW 's old wind farm was completed in April this year, and delivery is expected to be completed in September. The company estimates that the internal rate of return (after tax) of the retrofitted project is about 10%. The proportion of wind power installed by the company was 46 per cent by 2010, higher than that of Datang New Energy (32 per cent) and China Longyuan Power Group Corporation (25 per cent). It is expected that the company's wind power assets in the province are expected to take on a new look under the promotion of the transformation of old wind farms across the country.
Chinalco group electrolytic aluminum cooperation, source network load storage mode to solve the problem of new energy consumption. With the promotion of double carbon strategy and electricity marketization, Chinalco Group is facing triple pressure of carbon reduction, cost reduction and reliable electricity consumption. From 2021 to now, the state has issued articles for many times to encourage the coordinated development of the integration of source network, load and storage. On July 11 this year, the Central deepening system Reform Group meeting issued two policies: "double control of energy consumption to double control of carbon" and "further deepening the reform of power system". We stressed that a new round of electricity reform is imminent. it is expected that this power reform will focus on the spot market, source network load storage, capacity market, carbon market and so on. We believe that at present, the new energy operators in Northwest China are facing a more serious problem of consumption, and the source network load storage is a key concept under the new power system. At the same time, the double control of energy consumption has been transformed into double control of carbon. For the western provinces to rely on green power development high energy consumption release space.
Chinalco Group Development Source Network load Storage has two major advantages: load end and land end. Silver Star Energy, as the new energy listing platform of Chinalco Group, will fully benefit from the support of Chinalco Group.
Profit forecast and rating: combined with the recent operating conditions of the industry and the company, we maintain the company's home net profit forecast of 300 million yuan, 500 million yuan and 800 million yuan respectively from 2023 to 2025, and the current stock price is 18 times, 11 times and 7 times PE respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk hint: the progress of new energy installation development is not as expected, and the electricity price policy has undergone adverse changes.