Main points of investment

On July 12, the company disclosed the 23H1 performance forecast: the net profit of 23H1 is expected to be about-50.17 million yuan, deducting non-mother net profit of about-59.67 million yuan, and 23Q2 net profit of-58.11 million yuan and deducting non-home net profit of-66.84 million yuan, which is a loss compared with the same period last year.

High Price inventory Pulp & Price weakening, 23Q2 performance under pressure

23Q2 actually digested Q1 high-priced pulp, and the average price of 23Q1 broad-leaf pulp and coniferous pulp was $789,934 per ton (year-on-year + 21%, year-on-year + 9%), and the cost of finished products was high. There are more new production capacity in the industry, the downstream demand is dull, the overall contradiction between supply and demand is large, the overspeed drop of superimposed pulp price is a drag, and the price of white cardboard of the company is weak. the special paper products with more price increases in the early stage (such as thermal transfer paper) have declined in different ranges, but the company's positioning differentiation, high-end route, the overall average price adjustment of finished paper is far less than the pulp price. Domestic cigarette card QR code revision affects downstream customer stock, and export high gross margin orders decrease, demand side weak recovery, comprehensive view of 23Q2 company performance under pressure.

23H2 over-drop pulp gradually to the warehouse, performance improvement can be expected.

23Q2 broad leaf pulp $608 / ton (year-on-year-19.64%, month-on-month-22.98%), conifer pulp $749 / ton (year-on-year-25.47%, month-on-month-19.77%), 23Q3-Q4 cost dividend is expected to be realized quarter by quarter. Broad-leaf spot prices hit bottom slightly rebounded, pulp prices hit bottom expected H2 weak finishing, H2 tobacco card revamping sales are expected to recover, July white cardboard trial price of 200 yuan / ton, transmission stop signal to boost market prices, cost support-demand improvement paper price performance is expected to stabilize and pick up, 23H2 profits are expected to significantly improve.

Differential special paper leader, orderly expansion of pulp and paper production capacity is expected to smooth cyclical fluctuations the company plans to put 300000 tons of white cardboard paper / 60,000 tons of special paper into production in 24 years, and signed an agreement with China Paper to purchase Zhanjiang China Paper. At present, 1.02 million tons of coated white cardboard, 612,000 tons of chemical machine pulp and 204000 tons of calcium carbonate in Zhanjiang China Paper have passed the energy assessment, and it is expected that the EIA can start work after landing. After completion, the company will include the chemical pulp production capacity, which can effectively smooth the periodic fluctuation. In addition, the company's R & D investment in the leading industry, the launch of carbon fiber paper, reverse osmosis membrane substrate, digital white ink hot stamping film and other new products, which is expected to contribute to new profit growth in the future.

Profit forecast

We estimate that the company's operating income for 23-25 will be 77.07 / 98.96 RMB 10.761 billion, which is-4.69%, 28.40%, 8.74%, and 612 million yuan, respectively, year-on-year. The year-on-year net profit is-15.12%, 54.46%, 20.50%, 0.18, 0.27, 0.33 and 191210X, respectively, and the "holding increase" rating is maintained.