我们测算公司Q2 收入同比+25%-30%，其中家用屏蔽泵预计保持较快增长，主要受益于1）欧洲热泵景气度持续，根据德国热泵协会BWP 数据，2023Q1 德国热泵安装量同比增长122%；2）受益于产业升级机遇，公司节能泵持续放量，且均价高于普通泵；3）有效开拓俄罗斯市场等新市场。农业泵受益于疫后经济弱复苏+高温干旱天气催化，预计持续良好修复态势。工业泵方面，公司持续打造中高端工业屏蔽泵品牌定位，持续深化与头部企业的合作，预计保持快速增长。Incident review:
On July 12, 2023, the company released a performance forecast: 2023H1, the company achieved net profit of 16—170 million yuan, an increase of 62%-72% over the previous year; realized deduction of non-net profit of 1.55-165 million yuan, an increase of 63%-74% over the previous year. Based on this calculation of 23Q2, the company achieved net profit of 1-110 million yuan from the parent company, an increase of 37%-51% over the previous year; realized net profit of 0.97 to 170 million yuan, an increase of 37%-51% over the previous year.
Downstream prosperity continues, and revenue growth is expected to be relatively rapid:
We estimate that the company's Q2 revenue is +25%-30% year-on-year. Among them, household shielding pumps are expected to maintain relatively rapid growth, mainly benefiting from 1) continued European heat pump prosperity. According to German Heat Pump Association BWP data, 2023Q1 German heat pump installations increased 122% year-on-year; 2) benefited from industrial upgrading opportunities, the company's energy-saving pumps continued to be released, and the average price was higher than that of ordinary pumps; 3) Effectively developing new markets such as the Russian market. Agricultural pumps have benefited from weak economic recovery after the epidemic+catalysis of high temperatures and dry weather, and it is expected that the recovery trend will continue to be good. In terms of industrial pumps, the company continues to build a brand position for high-end industrial shielding pumps, continues to deepen cooperation with leading companies, and is expected to maintain rapid growth.
The product structure continues to be upgraded, and profitability continues to be restored:
We expect the company's gross margin to increase significantly compared to the same period last year as the product structure continues to upgrade and the decline in raw material prices. Furthermore, the impact of the RMB exchange rate in the second quarter of this year is expected to bring considerable exchange gains.
Under the combined influence, it is expected that the company's Q2 profit growth rate will still be faster than the revenue growth rate, and profitability will continue to recover.
The traditional main business is operating steadily, and new tracks such as commercial pumps and liquid cooling pumps can be expected to gain strength:
The company is a leader in the domestic pump industry and has strong competitiveness. The “double carbon” goal promotes the increase in demand for shielded pump products and accelerates the upgrading of the company's shielded pump shipment structure; agricultural pump tail enterprises optimize the industry pattern after clearance, the company actively lays out commercial pump tracks; demand in the emerging field of liquid-cooled pumps is expected, and the company is expected to continue to enjoy industry dividends as one of the leaders in the pump industry.
Investment advice:
The company's main business, such as household shielding pumps and agricultural pumps, continues to gain strength, and new tracks such as commercial pumps and liquid cooling pumps continue to gain strength. The company's revenue for 2023-2025 is expected to be 20.5/24.6/2.91 billion yuan, up 22%/20%/18% year-on-year; the net profit of the return mother is 3.7/44/5.3 billion yuan, an increase of 42%/19%/19%, corresponding to the current PE 13/11/9 times, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning:
Downstream demand falls short of expectations; new business development falls short of expectations.
