Gelonghui July 12th 丨Entering midsummer, there are frequent high temperatures everywhere, and prices of agricultural product-related varieties in commodity markets continue to rise.
In the intraday period on July 12, the settlement price of soybean meal futures reached another record high, reaching 4,071 yuan/ton. At the close, it closed at 4,051 yuan/ton; since July, the increase has reached 8.29%.
The main driver of the recent rise in soybean meal prices was the US on the evening of June 30This year's planting area report issued by the Ministry of Agriculture mentioned that the area under cultivation of soybeans this year was 83.5 million acres, lower than the 87.5 million acres anticipated in the March area report and the 87.45 million acres projected last year.
Combined with the current weather, precipitation is low in the central part of the soybean production area this year. Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio, which are located in this region and have suffered from drought, also happen to be high-yielding states for soybeans.
In the A-share market, the Huaxia soybean meal ETF has increased 20% since June. The Huaxia Soybean Meal ETF is currently the only ETF in the secondary market that tracks the soybean meal futures price index of large commercial firms.
Regarding the future market for soybean meal, Huatai Futures said that although the current overall domestic soybean meal supply pattern has not changed much, and there is still pressure on large quantities arriving in Hong Kong in the later stages, the key influencing factor on current domestic prices is still on soybeans. In the context of a sharp reduction in the planting area in the USDA area report, the price of soybeans received strong support. However, judging from the current situation in the US, the drought situation has not been substantially alleviated, and the excellent ratio of soybeans is still at a historic low of 50%. Under the pressure of the current 83.5 million acres of planting area, if you want to meet this year's consumption, you need 53 bushels/acre of historic yield and no fault tolerance, but the current weather conditions may be difficult to support. If weather conditions do not improve in the later stages, leading to a decline in the yield of soybeans this year, the soybean balance sheet will once again face the tense situation of going to storage. Therefore, it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the weather conditions in soybean producing regions in the later stages. If the weather side is difficult to improve, it will once again drive the prices of soybeans and domestic soybean meal to rise together.
Xing Zheng Futures believes that the price of soybean oil follows external market fluctuations, and there is no obvious contradiction between supply and demand. In terms of fundamentals, overall oil stocks are abundant, and production side constraints are weak. Currently, stocks of palm oil and soybean oil are all at historically high levels. As the amount of soybeans pressed gradually rises and soybean oil storage continues, at the same time, palm oil production continues to increase seasonally, and abundant oil supply will offset some of the impact of rising costs. The soybean oil market remains volatile at a high level in the future, and the overall operation is relatively weak. Soybean meal production has declined, and future market supply pressure still exists. Recently, the operating rate of oil mills and the amount of soybeans pressed have all declined, the supply of soybean meal has decreased, and the storage rate has slowed down. Currently, pig farming profits continue to be lost, and demand for soybean meal stocks generated by high storage volumes is relatively stable, but currently downstream demand is generally weak, and there is still pressure on the future market supply of soybean meal.