The Zhitong Finance App learned that Zhongtai Securities released a research report stating that it maintains the “buy” rating of Nuohui Health (06606) and adjusts profit forecasts based on the semi-annual performance forecast. It is expected that with the continuous increase in cancer screening market awareness, the release of the three major products is expected to accelerate, and it is expected to achieve revenue of 1743/30/4.557 billion yuan in 2023-25. Consider that the company is the leading listed company for early cancer screening in China. It has large market space, good competition pattern, rapid performance growth rate, and good scarcity. The company expects to achieve revenue of 799.837 million yuan in the first half of 2023, an increase of 254.2%-270.8% over the previous year, and a gross profit of 73-754 million yuan, an increase of 294.6%-307.3% over the previous year.
The main views of Zhongtai Securities are as follows:
Chang Weiqing achieved a high growth rate of 500+%, and Youyou Tube's business momentum is strong.
By product, in the first half of 2023, Changweiqing products are expected to achieve revenue of 481-501 billion yuan, an increase of 553.4%-580.6% over the previous year, mainly due to the rapid growth of high-value-added hospital channels and the continuous contribution of consumers, medical examination centers and other channels; Youtou tube products are expected to achieve revenue of 1.18-126 million yuan, up 72.1%-84.5% year on year, continuing the previous good growth trend; Youyou Tube products achieved revenue of 2-209 billion yuan, up 139.8%-150.5% year on year. It is mainly due to the rapid rise in sales volume and the rise in revenue from consumers, medical examination centers and other channel unit products. The company's three core product lines have all achieved rapid breakthroughs. As consumer awareness continues to deepen and the overall consumer market picks up, the bank expects the company to continue its rapid growth momentum in the future.
Cost optimization combined with an increase in average prices further increased overall gross margin.
In the first half of 2023, the company's gross margin is expected to be 87.3% to 94.3%, an increase of 5.3 pp-12.3 pp over the same period last year. Specifically, Changweiqing products are expected to have a gross profit margin of 88.6%-93.9%, up 12.9pp-18.2pp from the previous year; the gross margin of the tube is expected to be 80.9% to 93%, 0.9-13pp; the gross margin of Youyou Tube is expected to be 90.1%-98.4%, up 0.1 pp-8.4 pp from the previous year. The gross margin of the company's three product lines has improved markedly, mainly due to the rapid decline in production costs brought about by the expansion of scale and the significant increase in the average price of products after restructuring sales channels, end customers, etc. Considering that the company is still in an absolute leading position and that many products continue to rise, the bank expects gross margin to remain at a high level in the future.
Cash assets are sufficient, and the account age structure of accounts receivable has improved year-on-year.
As of June 30, 2023, the company's cash balance and specific financial assets are expected to be $20.46-2,048 billion, an increase of about 30% over the previous year. Ample cash on hand ensures the company's future healthy development. At the same time, the company's accounts receivable are expected to reach $954 million, an increase of about 72.2% over the previous year. The increase in accounts receivable is mainly due to the rapid expansion of the company's revenue scale. Judging from the account age structure, as of June 30, 2023, the company's accounts receivable for the 0-90 day account period is about 543 million yuan, accounting for about 57%, an improvement from 54% in the same period in 2022. The bank expects that in the future, as downstream hospital customer business conditions continue to improve, the company's accounts receivable share is expected to gradually decline.
Risk warning:R&D progress falls short of expectations, policy changes, sales growth estimates fall short of expectations, potential competitors, research reports may be at risk of information delays or untimely updates, etc.