Gelonghui July 6th 丨Pork stocks fluctuated in the afternoon and picked up.New Wufeng,Tang Renshen rose more than 6%, superstar agriculture and animal husbandry rose more than 4%, and Aonong Biotech, Wen's shares, and probiotic stocks rose.
Peace Fundaquaculture ETF,Penghua Fundlivestock ETF,E-Fangda FundModern agricultural ETF,Cathay Pacific Fundaquaculture ETF,Investment fundAnimal husbandry ETF,Wells Fargo Fundagricultural ETFs,Yinhua FundThe agricultural 50 ETF rose.
According to the news, according to official WeChat information from the National Development and Reform Commission, pig prices have continued to be low recently. In order to push pig prices back to a reasonable range as soon as possible, the National Development and Reform Commission will work with relevant parties to launch the second batch of central pork storage work within the year and guide all regions to store them simultaneously.
Since this year, aquaculture ETFs and livestock ETFs have continued to decline.Monitoring data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs shows that since January of this year, pig and pork prices across the country have shown a low and volatile trend. Pig prices have fluctuated to the bottom, and pork prices have continued to fall. According to data from the China Pig Farming Network on July 4, the price of pigs in the country (3 yuan plus) was 13.88 yuan/kg, falling below the 7 yuan mark per catty, and pig prices have remained low for the past 8 months.
In terms of pigs, according to monitoring data from the China Pig Farming Network, the price of pigs (three yuan plus) was 13.78 yuan/kg, down 16.2% from 16.45 yuan on January 3.
According to monitoring by the National Development and Reform Commission, during the week of June 26-30, the national average pork food price ratio fell below 5:1, entering the first-level warning range for excessive decline determined by the “Plan for Improving the Government's Pork Reserve Regulation Mechanism to Ensure Supply and Price Stability in the Pork Market”.
The country pays great attention to price changes in the pig market and will continue to strengthen pig production capacity and price regulation to promote the smooth operation of the pig market.
On July 5, Muyuan Co., Ltd. issued a pig sales briefing. In the first half of 2023, Muyuan Co., Ltd. sold a total of 30.265,000 pigs, including 29.077 million commercial pigs, 1.090 million piglets, and 97,000 breeding pigs. Compared with the same period last year, sales of piglets and breeding pigs declined markedly, with year-on-year declines of 73.37% and 54%, respectively.
In terms of price, in the first half of this year, the average monthly sales price of commercial pigs from Muyuan Co., Ltd. was 14.3 yuan/kg, up from last year (13.6 yuan/kg in the same period last year).
Institutions have different views on pork prices in the second half of the year.Guomao Futures believes that the focus of pig prices is expected to shift upward in the second half of this year.
CITIC Construction Investment believes that the arrival of the peak summer tourist season may benefit the consumption of frozen products. Coupled with changes in the Group's supply pace, pig prices may still maintain an upward and upward fluctuation trend, and the possibility of a slight strengthening is not ruled out.
Fangzheng Securities said in its research report that pig prices have remained low for 6 months since falling below the cost line at the end of last year. However, unlike the previous cycle, due to the continuous increase in the scale and concentration of the industry, the superposition industry has always had strong expectations that are optimistic about the future market. As a result, the recovery rate of sow production capacity has been slow during the loss period of half a year.
According to Fangzheng Securities's forecast, the average price of pigs in the second half of this year may be around 16 yuan/kg, and at a pace lower than 16 yuan/kg from July to October, and higher than 16 yuan/kg after October.
Haitong Securities said it expects pig prices to remain weak in the second half of the year, and the trend of capacity reduction will not change. The supply of pigs depends on the number of sows that can breed 10 months ago. The price of pigs in the second half of the year will be determined by the number of sows that can breed between September 2022 and February 2023, and the number of breeding sows within this stage is too high. This establishes that the supply of pigs is still relatively sufficient in the second half of the year, and the probability that pig prices will rise sharply is too small. Weak pig prices also determined that the trend of capacity reduction remained unchanged. The industry was still in the capacity reduction cycle in the second half of the year.
According to an analysis by Guojin Securities, overall, the short-term pressure on the supply side of pigs is still too high. As the supply side picks up month-on-month in the second quarter, pig prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level in the second quarter. The possibility of another downturn is not ruled out. The breeding side may be at a loss for a longer period of time, causing the industry to continue to lose production capacity.
