Forging spindle leads the world, and the cost advantage of leading enterprises is highlighted.
Advanced technology: the company is a leading enterprise in the field of wind power spindle, and its forging spindle products have covered a variety of mainstream models of 0.6MW-9MW, and it is one of the only two manufacturers that can produce 8MW forging spindle. In November 2022, the world's first 9 MW wind power forging spindle was successfully offline in Tongyu heavy Industry, fully reflecting the company's comprehensive manufacturing strength and technical advantages of the whole industry chain.
Cost leadership: the company is one of the earliest domestic enterprises to cut into the field of wind power casting spindle products, and completed the delivery of more than 1100 casting spindles in 2022, which has formed a large-scale batch supply capacity. Enterprises with scale advantages often have higher bargaining power in the procurement of raw materials.
Fund-raising plus code: in June 2022, the company plans to raise 1.485 billion yuan for large-scale offshore wind power products supporting capacity enhancement projects and high-end equipment core components energy-saving technology and equipment upgrading project construction. At present, the project funds have been put in place, and after reaching production, the project will contribute 300 sets of wind power structure stator and rotor products and 270 sets of casting processing products, with an incremental operating income of 887 million yuan.
The competitive advantage of forging spindle is reflected in the technical difference, and the competitive advantage of casting spindle is reflected in the cost difference.
The production of high-power wind power spindle has high technical barriers: only a few domestic enterprises can produce forged spindles on high-power wind turbines.
Castings need to compete with the cost: the technical difference of castings is finally reflected in the qualified rate and other indicators, reflecting the cost difference.
The market space of forging spindle is stable, and the market of casting spindle is growing rapidly.
The forged spindle is mainly used for double-fed wind turbines. According to the global forecast of onshore and offshore wind power installation, assuming that the usage of each forged spindle is 6 tons / MW, it is estimated that the market space of the forged spindle will maintain an annual growth of 200-500 million yuan from 2022 to 2025, and the industry space will reach about 5.391 billion yuan by 2025.
The casting spindle is mainly used for semi-direct drive fans. According to the global forecast of onshore and offshore wind power installation and the proportion of models used, assuming that the usage of each wind turbine casting spindle is 3 tons / MW, it is estimated that the market space of the casting spindle will reach about 1.342 billion yuan by 2025, and the CAGR from 2022 to 2025 will be about 31.49%, with a considerable growth rate.
Profit forecast
Overall, taking into account the company's fund-raising projects, we expect the company to achieve a net profit of 4.5 million yuan in 2025, and the current market capitalization corresponding to PE is 24X/19X/14X. With the investment project production company is expected to release sustained profits, the company, as the wind power spindle leading enterprise, is expected to benefit from the industry growth trend, covering for the first time, giving a "buy" rating.
Risk hints: macroeconomic fluctuation and policy change risk; exchange rate fluctuation risk; project investment risk; raw material price risk.